The Economist estimated the benefits to Russia from the China-US trade war.
As reported by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China yesterday, the trade turnover between Russia and China in the first seven months of this year increased by 25.8% in annual terms and reached 58.35 billion dollars at the moment.
Which is particularly interesting. Officials and the Chinese expert community, who are always vigilant about the “trade balance”, are now very approvingly watching the growth of trade turnover, while ignoring the foreign trade balance. And there is something to talk about.
The volume of exports from China to the Russian Federation only for this period increased by 16.6% and amounted to 26.9 billion dollars. At the same time, the import of Russian goods and services to the People’s Republic of China, in turn, grew by a much more noticeable 34.9% – to $ 31.45 billion. And the Chinese comrades, we repeat, quite sensitive in this area, this “skewed trends” is not very worried. From the point of view of global markets, it seems to be rather strange.
In fact, there is an explanation for this.
But first – about the scale of change. The Russian-Chinese foreign trade turnover for the year 2016, for example, increased by 2.2% in annual terms, comparable to the GDP growth rate of the Russian Federation, and reached 69.52 billion US dollars. But already in 2017 this indicator increased “jump”, by as much as 20.8% (more than one fifth: very serious figures) – up to 84.07 billion dollars. And in 2018 has every chance to exceed 100 billion dollars. This, of course, is not an American-Chinese $ 600 billion, but, excuse me, a very, very significant figure.
And this, we note, has not yet earned the most ambitious strategic projects for both the Russian and the Chinese side: neither the “Power of Siberia” nor the Northern Sea Route, nor the transport corridor through Kazakhstan with the planned high-speed highway. Yes, and the alignment of the “basic” trans-Eurasian railway corridor (BAM, Transsib) has also just begun.
Russia will build mutually beneficial relations with Turkey, the Foreign Ministry said.
Meanwhile, as Reuters reports referring to the statistics of the ship’s statistics, deliveries of liquefied natural gas from the USA to China have already fallen directly to the minimum value for 2018 in July of this year and amounted to 130 thousand tons. Just for comparison: in May the United States exported about 400 thousand tons of LNG to the People’s Republic of China, and in March – 445 thousand tons.
And by the summer of LNG supplies to China, on the contrary, countries such as Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea have increased. But the most serious of the “falling volumes” falls to the share (who would have thought) of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, in general, it is clear that the decline in LNG exports from the US occurred against the backdrop of worsening trade contradictions between the countries. The People’s Republic of China in general regarded the purchase of American shale gas as a concession to Trumpu, as a kind gesture of goodwill.
And now, according to traders who shared their opinions with Reuters, China is looking for alternative sources of supply.
And it is only natural that he looks after them not among global competitors, but from among the neighbors on the mainland.
But this, too, is not all. Now we will move to Turkey, where also interesting news came.
According to the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Fatih Donmez, Turkey, in addition to Sinop and the Russian Akkuyu, plans to implement a project to build a third nuclear power plant in the north-west of the country.
And it will be built not even by the Russians, but by the Chinese.
This decision, of course, is political. Apparently, it was taken in more or less definitive form during the talks that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and the Chairman of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping were holding in the margins of the tenth BRICS summit in Johannesburg. The same BRICS, where Turkey is now actively eager to get.
And it is very unlikely that Mr. Erdogan and Comrade Si took such a decision without the knowledge of the Russian colleague.
… What does this mean primarily to us?
In case of implementation.
Both the Russian (Akkuyu nuclear power plant) and the Chinese (Thrace) nuclear projects, as well as taking into account gas supplies through the Turkish and Blue Stream (there is also such, built in the framework of the Russian-Turkish agreement of 1997, capacity to date of about 15.5 billion cubes) flows The Turkish Republic virtually completely passes over to the so-called Eurasian energy platform, which is controlled by the Russian Federation with the friendly participation of the PRC. The S-400Turcia, as we recall, is a member of NATO, yet an official ally of the “civilized countries of the West” and the US. All this together does not speak of any “sensational new alliances” It’s just a systemic regionalization of the global economy, and even the eccentricity of the current US president has nothing to do with it: Trump and his policies are just a catalyst, not the cause of what is happening. And, strictly speaking, Russia and China are not so much “shaping trends” here as they are corny following completely natural global processes, which are still only economic. Including the increasing, again for quite natural economic reasons, global self-isolation of the US. The policy, as always in such stories, follows the economy with some delay.