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Christmas War of Poroshenko

What will President Poroshenko do when the martial law expires?

The President of Ukraine, and in combination the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Poroshenko walks on a grand scale – quack, despite the martial law he himself declared in the country. Recently, he, along with his wife and guards, was spotted in one of the most elite and, presumably, expensive, Kiev restaurants, where, as usual, he drank and ate. The photo and video report hit the social network, which angered the Ukrainians, who considered such behavior in a state of martial law unacceptable for the head of state. However, if you follow the proverb: “To someone it is war, and to someone it is the dear mother”, then Poroshenko doesn’t bother much about the costs of “wartime”, unlike other fellow citizens. Well, is it not under the blanket of him that a whisker to eat and black caviar to bite? Let the people know that everything is in order, at least with the president.

Meanwhile, on December 26, the 30-day period of martial law in 10 regions of Ukraine expires. And if you believe Mr. Poroshenko himself, he will not extend the special regime, with the only proviso that “unless the war starts.” A month ago, he emphasized that Ukraine does not declare war on Russia, but only takes preventive measures for defense in the event of a military invasion. And on December 16, he said: “If large-scale aggression does not start, the invasion of the troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine (outside the collision line in the Donbass and the administrative border of the Crimea), martial law will not be extended.”

Russia has not attacked Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has recently assured that Russia will not fight with Ukraine and will not recognize the independence of the DNR / LNR. At the same time, President Vladimir Putin at his final press conference said that “Russia provided and will continue to provide humanitarian and other assistance and support to people living in this territory only so that they will not be completely crushed, eaten, or torn.” At the same time about the war again, not a word.

Now it is not clear why then martial law was introduced in Ukraine? Or Poroshenko still expects to use the situation in the end and somehow provoke an armed conflict in close proximity to the Russian border? Then, before the start of the war, there is only one day left – it can start right on Catholic Christmas, which falls on the night of December 24-25. And on the 26th – already bayonets into the ground?

There, a draft resolution “on declaring a war position with the Russian Federation” was registered a few days ago in the Verkhovna Rada. Its meaning is in the appeal of the deputies to Poroshenko with a number of demands. “The President does not fulfill his direct constitutional duties regarding the defense of the country,” said the author of the draft, deputy chairman of the Rada committee on legislative support for law enforcement, Vitaly Kupriy. According to him, the president had to declare mobilization within 30 days of martial law and submit to Parliament a document declaring a state of war. But Poroshenko did not do this, and the deputies decided to remind him of their duties. In fact – pushing the outbreak of hostilities.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army, which suffers from a shortage of the winner, prepared for the next “jump to the Donbass.” Judging by the information of the DNR reconnaissance, the APU is being dragged to the contact line in the Donbas by large-caliber barrel artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. The redeployment of echelons with armored vehicles, anti-tank guns, Strela-10 anti-aircraft missile systems and other types of weapons was also noted. Only in the south of the Donetsk region (the so-called Mariupol direction) is concentrated a group of 12 thousand troops and 90 units of military equipment.

Such preparations for the attack on the Donbass APU carried out repeatedly, not all of them ended in the beginning of large-scale hostilities. Often they turned into large losses among the Ukrainian military and disabled equipment. The army does not particularly want to fight and prefers a positional exchange of fire, demonstrating the consumption of ammunition for Kiev. A lot has been fired in recent days and, as the Free Press reported earlier, only on December 22, the Ukrainian security forces violated the cease-fire regime more than 20 times.

What other weapons Ukraine is going to attack the Donbass? After 1991, Kiev inherited all the military equipment of the three military districts deployed on its territory.

What other weapons Ukraine is going to attack the Donbass with? After 1991, Kiev inherited all the military equipment of the three military districts deployed in its territory – Kiev, Odessa and Prikarpat district. And this, for a minute, was the real power that allowed the newly formed state to enter the top three of the most powerful armies of Europe. Ukraine subsequently lost its combat potential, but simply sold out equipment and weapons, but some reserves remained. Now Kiev is trying to demonstrate its “combat capabilities” by upgrading existing weapons.

  • In fact, Ukraine has been able to maintain a very efficient army, including thanks to the production capacities of its defense complex, which was formed here in Soviet times, – said the director of the Technology Analysis Center, Ruslan Pukhov.

– And if the Kalashnikov assault rifles were made in Izhevsk, T-72 tanks in the Urals, T-80 tanks were made in Kharkiv, it was where all the AN aircrafts – Antonov airplanes were produces. We can recall a number of defense enterprises on the territory of Ukraine that were capable of preparing high-quality weapons. Now, I do not exclude, they are actively trying to establish, rather restore, this production. Here the question is different – corny there are not enough component materials to complete the full production cycle. Therefore, mold from what is at hand. Something is possible, but it is almost impossible to talk about the full development of the defense complex in Ukraine. Here you even burst – if there is no barrel in the machine gun, then no butt will make it a combat unit.

Nevertheless, over the past four years, Ukraine has presented more than 20 models of weapons. Consider a series of them more closely. For example, the unmanned aerial vehicle “Phantom”. This is a remote-controlled mini-armored personnel carrier capable of firing from the weapons (machine guns) mounted on it and evacuating the wounded from the battlefield. Power reserve is 20 kilometers. In addition to the demonstration capabilities at the exhibition Ukroboronprom was not seen anywhere else. Supplies to the troops, too, was not observed.

The Ukrainian An-132D transport aircraft (a modification of the Soviet An-32 transport aircraft) is presented as a novelty, in which, according to the developers, there is not a single Russian detail. The plane has already been ordered in Saudi Arabia and, as it was supposed, they will be produced almost two dozen a year. So far there is only one – a demo.

The rate of fire of the combat module for light armored vehicles (probably for the Dozor-B armored car) is impressive with its characteristics – 3400 rounds per minute. This fire means is intended to destroy ground targets at a distance of up to two kilometers and airborne at altitudes up to 1000 meters. A high rate of fire is achieved through the use of 23-mm gun GSH-23. On closer examination, it turns out that the cannon, originally from Tula, was developed in 1965 and was used on many Soviet aircraft, including the MiG-21. Good thing, but obviously without Ukrainian stigma.

The BMP-1, the legendary infantry fighting vehicle, which became anarchism in the Russian army and only adorns the monuments of military glory, found a “second life” in Ukraine. The Zhytomyr armored plant upgraded this combat vehicle to the level of the BMP-1UMD, including by painting the hull, which makes it invisible, including in the infrared ranges. Such a BMP is driving along the road, with the German diesel engine installed, and the villagers do not see it – some kind of miracle! At the same time, it is equipped with a laser rangefinder, probably intended for determining the distance to the nearest well.

The RK-4 Ingul portable rocket launcher, demonstrated by Ukraine at the arms exhibition in Turkey back in 2017, is distinguished by good capabilities for hitting lightly armored vehicles, vehicles, launchers, radars, parked planes, etc. However, its analogue was removed from service. The USSR in 1989, when replaced by more modern systems of rocket-propelled grenade launchers. Ukraine breathed a second life into this type of weapon and issued it as its own know-how.

Even the uninitiated know about Grad rocket launchers. The legendary heir to the “Katyusha” of the times of the Great Patriotic War in Ukraine was named “Willow” and is positioned as a new generation of weapons. The characteristics are the same, but the status is new.

We will be objective, Ukroboronprom has achieved some production of its own weapon systems – the potential has been preserved. Here, for example, the Kiev Armored Plant developed a machine-gun-grenade launcher module for military equipment, equipped with the Chestnut computer fire control system. It is designed for remote control of weapons with sighting video cameras, which are able to detect armored vehicles (BMP) in 15 seconds at a distance of up to 4 kilometers.

“The chip of the season” – a hybrid tank and BMP. Back in 2015, it was reported that the Kharkov Armored Plant created an armored vehicle for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which combines the characteristics of the T-64 tank and the BMP. The declared speed is up to 65 km / h, the armor is able to withstand a shot from a grenade launcher and a blast wave from an anti-tank mine. The tank was equipped with night vision devices, set up a Kombat missile. It turned out all the same modified T-72, which in the end did not reach the war zone – it did not come to mass production.

In the end, Ukraine will not be able to demonstrate anything new from weapons in the Donbass. All the same “ancient” T-64s will go into battle, the Grads (Verba) and Tornadoes will be firing missiles at city quarters, but there is nothing consoling about the obsolete weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And people, including civilians, they are able to kill in large numbers. If the war starts tomorrow …

 

 

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