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Donbass choice: the West will not be able to return Poroshenko to Ukraine

Kiev knew what the LNR and the DNR actually voted for “at the point of the guns”

A priori, in Kiev, they refused to recognize the elections in the DNR and the LNR before they were held, because they knew that they were going to vote not only for specific candidates, but for their future separate from Ukraine. No one expected such a high voter turnout, which indicates a successful organization of elections – 80 percent in Donetsk and 77 percent in Lugansk. The appeal of the Ukrainian President Poroshenko “Do not go to the polls” did not work either, but rather he  motivated more people to “vote with their feet” for further integration with Russia. The non-recognition by the West of these elections did not help either, although international observers came to them as a result.

 

“The elections in the DNR and LNR were a response to the open Kiev’s torpedoing of the Minsk Agreements,” said Frants Klintsevich, a member of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security.

– At the same time, they also put a bullet on the plans of the US State Department Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker on the so-called settlement in the Donbass using international police forces. Now to promote something like that is absolutely unthinkable. Of course, no one knows how the situation will develop further. But the elections showed that Kiev in the Donbass is opposed by a people united by a single will, with whom it is possible to conduct a dialogue only on the basis of mutual consideration of interests. Whether someone likes it or not, but de facto, the DNR and the LNR, at least at the moment, are subjects of international relations, and treating them differently means to completely freeze the situation. Elections included another factor – the time factor, which Kiev has less and less to preserve the unity of Ukraine. What can still be done today will meet insurmountable obstacles on its way tomorrow. But, apparently, any change in the course of Kiev in relation to the Donbass can be discussed only after the presidential elections in Ukraine.

This is where the dog is buried as we say! In the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine itself in March next year, in which the current head of state clearly does not have enough arguments to win over voters. And if Poroshenko could “make peace” with the Donbas, he would have scored a decent amount of points. This chance was finally lost by him, which is why he traditionally includes the his “tears and weeping of Yaroslavna” ( the idoma for great tragedy) and says that the elections in the Donbass were organized by Russia, and people were brought to the polling stations “at gunpoint”. He also has a hidden fear that the elections in Ukraine will not be without Russian intervention – after all, was Hillary Clinton not “prevented” from being elected (which Poroshenko so supported), and Trump was “chosen”. Now he himself will have to go through the attacks of “terrible Russian hackers”.

 

Well, and what, actually, over the past four years Ukraine has done, for the residents of Donbass, to earn the recognition of people? It cut off electricity, refused to buy coal, but sent “humanitarian aid” – tens of thousands of shells and mines on the heads of civilians. These actions can hardly be called fraternal relations. Not surprisingly, the Donbass told Kiev good-bye, until the indulgence, in general – goodbye.

 

“Kiev completely lost its influence on the territory of Donbass” is not a message from news agencies, but a direct quote from the Ukrainian president who issued it at a meeting of the Council of Regions in March last year. At the same time, Poroshenko directly pointed out directly to the participants in the blockade of the radical nationalists, who condemned Ukraine to “coal hunger”, finally cut the “umbilical cord” from the south-east of the country, plus disrupted the next tranche of the IMF to Kiev.

 

Looking at the current movements of the Ukrainian president Poroshenko, one can involuntarily recall a film character — the defrauded Anton Semenovich Shpak from Ivan Vasilyevich Changes Profession, who reads: “Everything, everything that has been acquired by constant overwork.” In the enumeration of lost, unlike sheepskin, movie cameras (imported) and the Rosenlev refrigerator, mentioned by actor Vladimir Etush, Petr Poroshenko laments about the lost Crimea and Donbas, closing facilities, the absence of gas, coal and, which causes even more tears The absence of money tranches by the IMF and other humanitarian organizations that until recently fed Ukraine.

 

Poroshenko, who had fought all these past four years with the mythical “Russian aggression” in the Donbass, which no one was able to detect in that way, Donbass himself never saw, except from trenches through binoculars delimitation lines. Actually, this “distinction” by him (or his commanders) was invented.

What kind of relationship then? Through the line, which has actually become the border. And Poroshenko, who had previously categorically rejected the idea of ​​Ukraine’s refusal from the Donbass, threw out the white flag and actually admitted its insolvency while preserving the integrity of the state.

  • Many Poroshenko’s actions demonstrate that he sees his task as simply as possible – to keep the Ukrainian people in a state of complete amazement, believes Russian political analyst Alexander Zimovsky.

– It has long been obvious that in order to achieve this non-material, in general, goal, Kiev is even ready for self-restoration. Of course, we know examples when tactical gains led to substantial losses, including territorial ones. However, such decisions were made by real-minded politicians, not clowns and mummers, as it is now in Ukraine. In this context, the legal consolidation of Ukraine’s refusal from Donbass (and the decision to completely blockade this multi-million dollar largest economic center is legally binding) Kiev’s refusal of control over the territory of the country as a whole. Let’s go along the map of Ukraine from East to West. The East is self-blocked, sorry for this neologism. The central regions are showing an increasing tendency toward the development of the remaining resources, independent of Kiev. For example, Kharkiv and its environs have long been out of control of Poroshenko de facto.

Even stronger centrifugal trends are in the western regions of Ukraine. In Volyn, a separatist pirate liberty extracts amber, the western border of Ukraine has come under the control of armed local gangs, which independently establish access control and charge money for it from the travelers. At the same time, similar armed groups predatory deforestation of Ukrainian forests followed by export abroad. The sea ports of Ukraine are also controlled by local influential clans, without regard to Kiev. There is a powerful process of regionalization of Ukraine, which is accompanied by the collapse of the centralized police, prosecutors and judicial institutions. All these functions are transferred to the local groupings. Judging by the state of Ukrainian state finances, the hour is not far when in the regions with the strongest autonomization Ukrainian bright heads will come to the conclusion that they need their own ersatz money to maintain economic independence and protect existing natural and industrial resources.

Of course, the degradation of Ukraine and its decline in some regions, warring, and managed on the principles of Hetman military or aristocratic estates – this is not a historical inevitability. But this is a threat of instability to the eastern borders of the European Union, and a serious threat. In the course of the further somatization of Ukraine, the mass resettlement of refugees, migrants and even the invasion of armed formations in the direction of Poland, Romania, Hungary and, possibly, Turkey is a matter of time. And by no means a remote time. After the last elections in the Donbass (the first were held in 2014, soon after the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics declared their independence from Ukraine), in Kiev they clearly realize that there is no longer any thought of returning “lost territories” meaning. “What fell from the cart, then disappeared.” But, as they say, it is better to get out of the most unpleasant situation with minimal losses. And now Poroshenko, laying the blame for holding the elections in the Donbass on Russia, stood expectantly — how will  the West react? And there they themselves do not understand how to act in a similar situation, but just in case, they “condemned”, “banned” and threatened with further sanctions. Experts had previously predicted the collapse of Ukraine into “specific principalities”, and Poroshenko himself frankly says that threatened by anarchy. When there is no gas, oil and coal in the country, and winter has already arrived, you can try to find any excuses. Well, Donbass, it seems, will not disappear – they don’t jump there, they live there and work hard to dig the coil!

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