According to Energy Research & Social Science, the probability of a disaster at Ukrainian NPPs is 80%.
On an official site of the president of Ukraine the report on Poroshenko’s visit to the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk of the Nikolaev area was published. This is the so-called “satellite” local city serving the South Ukrainian Energy Complex, consisting of the South Ukrainian NPP, the Aleksandrovskaya HPP and the Tashlyk Hydroelectric Station.
Poroshenko visited the complex and held on its territory a pre-election meeting with the power engineers, addressing them with a pompous speech:
– I think that the role that the nuclear power industry is playing now, especially in the last 4–5 years, when we increased the share of nuclear power in the balance of energy consumption and power generation to 60–61%, this means a huge contribution of nuclear power engineers to the state’s energy security and diversification of energy supply (…). The fact that we survived without Russian gas is a significant contribution of nuclear energy (…). For energy security and energy diversification, I want to thank the atomic lobbyists. You are great fellows.
In the future, the “victorious” performance of the leader of the Kiev regime was replicated by the Ukrainian media. That’s just a place for stories about the “energy independence” and “outstanding achievements” of nuclear power Poroshenko chose not the best. After all, the people to whom he tried to hang noodles on his ears, more than anyone else, understood that the “guarantor” used invented statistics. Moreover, they are well aware that the Ukrainian nuclear power industry is already falling into the abyss, and in the coming years may become the most terrible problem for Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Kiev media, about the lies of their president, were silent, getting rid of short notes about Poroshenko’s South Ukrainian tour with quotes from his personal website.
To make sure that the Ukrainian president is blatantly lying, it’s enough to rummage through the Ukrainian media and official statements of the Kiev power engineers for a couple of hours.
For example, on January 14 of this year, with reference to the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry, the Uaenergy portal reported that nuclear power plants in 2018 reduced electricity generation by 1.4% to 84.4 billion kWh. At the same time, thermal power plants operating on Russian gas and coal hated by Ukrainian patriots, on the contrary, increased production by 6.3% to 47.8 billion kWh. And CHP and cogeneration plants increased electricity generation by 1.2%, to 11 billion 16.2 million kWh.
The share of nuclear power plants in the structure of power generation, according to Uaenergy, fell on an annualized basis from 55.1 to 53%.
Poroshenko really does not have information about what is happening in the country governed by him or is he lying deliberately? Or was it just the speechwriters failed? In any case, when it comes to the “peaceful atom”, even if it is a independent national atom, it is scary.
But it is flowers. Berries — next.
The president diplomatically kept silent about the fact that Ukrainian atomic energy is no less Russian than gas.
On December 20, 2018, information appeared in the Ukrainian media that Kiev, under the strictest secrecy, concluded another agreement with Moscow on the supply of nuclear fuel for nuclear power plants. According to the “Mirrors of the week”, the new document will be valid until 2025. Moreover, despite attempts by Kiev to co-operate with US-Swedish manufacturers, Russian nuclear scientists confidently dominate the Ukraine market. According to Strana.UA, “the share of Ukraine’s purchases of nuclear fuel for 10 months of 2018 from TVEL (RF) was 70.6% in monetary terms, from Westinghouse (Sweden) – 29.4%.”
The most important thing is that today the nuclear power industry of Ukraine bears a monstrous threat, both for the residents of the most “independent” and for the neighboring states – Russia, Belarus, Poland, Moldova.
There are 15 reactors in four operating Ukrainian NPPs. 11 of them are “problematic”. The resource of some of them can be extended for 10−15 years due to the overhaul. Others – you need to stop completely.
So, of the six power units of the Zaporozhye NPP, three have already been renewed (in 2025-2027, they will need to be stopped forever). Two more urgently need a major overhaul. There is still some “time” resource only one react
There is still some “time” resource in only one reactor.
At the Rovno nuclear power plant the situation is similar. There, two reactors have already undergone an extension procedure, one had to be started to be repaired “just yesterday”, another one – it can work until 2035.
The worst situation is just at the South Ukrainian NPP. There, of the three reactors, two survived the extension and are to be closed in 2023-2025, and one must be stopped for major repairs in the 2020th.
At the Khmelnitsky NPP there are two units, one also needs to be repaired, and the other will still live for a while.
By and large, official Kiev needs to build 10–15 new reactors in an emergency way. However, the construction of each of them costs from 3 to 5 billion US dollars.
Given that the annual volume of the entire budget of Ukraine is about 37 billion, Kiev in the next decade can pull the construction of a maximum of one or two reactors. And even then – if you’re lucky. Since the macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine this year have already begun to collapse. And this means that the Ukrainian nuclear power industry is waiting for extremely difficult times.
For a while, she will be able to stretch out on “extensions.” This procedure costs about $ 300 million. This is also very difficult for the Ukrainian economy, but at least not fatal. However, to repeat this procedure two times will not work.
However, even the “first” extensions were made by Kiev, quarreled with Moscow, with serious technological violations. Now, according to experts of the academic journal Energy Research & Social Science, at one of the Ukrainian nuclear power plants in the next 5 years with a probability of 80% a nuclear catastrophe should occur, comparable in consequences if not to Chernobyl, then at least with the accident at the American nuclear power plant Three Mile Island. This sounds very plausible, especially given the fact that over the past couple of years, the number of emergency shutdowns of reactors at Ukrainian NPPs has increased by an order of magnitude.
If something like this happens, it will not seem to anyone. After all, most of the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 were overcome only thanks to the enormous power and centralization of the Soviet state. Ukraine has no such resources.
In the event of an accident, Ulraine will infect everyone around with radiation and wait for help from abroad. And then who will have to help? Germans and French who are far away? Americans who generally overseas? Or closest neighbors?
If it explodes at the Rivne or Khmelnitsky NPP, the nuclear cloud will cover Poland and Belarus. If on the South Ukrainian or Zaporizhia region – Moldova, the Crimea and Rostov will be in touch, and if the wind blows to the northeast, then Belgorod, Kursk and Voronezh. Willy-nilly, we will have to take part in the aftermath of the accident.
In Kiev, they are often sad that they once abandoned nuclear weapons. There are calls to create it. But in fact, the creators of the “revolution of hidnosti” (honour revolution) already today have an atomic bomb – only in delayed action. And unpredictable. Worst of all, most of the Ukrainian media prefer to keep silent about these obvious facts. In Europe, too, turn a blind eye to the problem …
And Poroshenko continues to drive Ukraine into the abyss. If he leaves now, any “changer” will try to put him on trial. And it’s not a fact that Spain, in whose territory he has a “spare” residence, will wish to grant him political asylum. In order not to give up power and not lose access to the money that can still be poured out from Ukraine, receiving foreign loans, Poroshenko is ready to leave the burned field in place of the country. On which it will be anxious to crackle the Geiger counter …