Generals in Kiev fear that friendship with the West will end in Balkanization of Ukraine.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine foresees four military-political scenarios in which the army will need real protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. This is stated in a report presented in Kiev by the new Chief of the General Staff, General Ruslan Homchak, at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Working Group.
The first scenario — from the point of view of Kiev — is the most dangerous — the full-scale use of military force by Russia against Ukraine. The goal is to change the state structure and change the military-political leadership of the country.
The second most dangerous scenario is the armed conflict within Ukraine, which was created and maintained from the outside.
The third is drawing Ukraine into an armed conflict.
The fourth is a border armed conflict. Analysts believe that this option may serve as a reason for conducting a large-scale military operation against Ukraine.
How exactly the Ukrainian military sees the variant of scenario No. 1, Lieutenant-General Ruslan Homchak told in an interview for Novinarnya. According to him, the preparation of a “Russian invasion” is simultaneously being conducted simultaneously from Transnistria, Belarus, the Donbass and the Crimea. Russia allegedly pulled off a large force on the border with Ukraine. Because in the Kremlin “they are terribly afraid” of the penetration of democracy from Europe into Ukraine. And further – to the east.
Hardly having received power, the Zelensky team is trying to outdo the most ardent Ukrainian nationalists.
But another thing is interesting: in the other three scenarios, Russia is not mentioned at all. This means, apparently, the following. Kiev fears that Romania, Hungary or even Poland may try to regain their former territories, which are now part of Ukraine. Then we are talking about Volyn, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil and Rivne regions (former possessions of Poland). And also – about the Transcarpathian and Chernivtsi regions (ex-territory of Hungary and Romania).
Especially Kiev today worries the activity of Hungary. Recall the relationship between the two countries deteriorated after the vote of the Verkhovna Rada for the law “On Education”. This document has extremely expanded the use of the Ukrainian language in school. This is done at the expense of minority languages. What, above all, angered Hungarians.
In response, Budapest began to block meetings of the Ukraine-NATO top-level commission. Plus, he announced that he would oppose Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration until the law was amended.
Further more. The Hungarian government has allocated more than 7.5 euros for large-scale support for the Hungarian culture of Transcarpathia. Recently, Prime Minister Viktor Orban met in Budapest with the head of the Society of Hungarian Culture of Transcarpathia, Vasily Brenzovich. And in the Transcarpathian region itself, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister Gergey Guyash visited with an unofficial visit.
As a result, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine accused Hungary of interfering in the internal affairs of the country before the elections and in violation of the “canons and the spirit of good neighborliness.”
Against this background, the scenarios of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces look like a prophecy: what will happen when the violation of the “canons of good-neighborliness” comes to a logical end?
Note: according to analysts, the option of “balkanization” of Ukraine really exists. Just because Ukraine is too complicated an object to absorb the EU compared to those countries that the EU has already swallowed.
Therefore, in Europe there are certain plans for regionalization. For example, the plan for the development of “Carpathian Europe” is being actively discussed. Its estimated territory includes not only most of the Eastern European states, but also some parts of some states. Including – Western Ukraine.
Can the scenarios listed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine be realized?
– The armed conflict inside Ukraine, which is supported from the outside, is also about Russia,” says Mikhail Alexandrov, a leading expert at the Center for Military-Political Research at MGIMO. – Ukrainian analysts extrapolate the situation that already exists – if we begin to act more actively. If we support the Donbass, which goes on the offensive. Support other areas that want to separate.
In fact, this scenario is already being implemented in Ukraine today – there is a civil war, supported from the outside. In this war, Kiev is supported by the West. And the Donbass- by Russia.
– Who will oppose Ukraine in the third scenario, which involves being drawn into an armed conflict?
– And here is more interesting. Here, in my opinion, it is primarily about the West, and not about Russia. Ukrainians, apparently, began to think that they could be drawn into armed conflict.
Relations between the Russian Federation and the West are rather tense. Therefore, in the same Baltics, a Russia-NATO conflict may arise, and Ukraine will be dragged in every possible way. Use it as a springboard for deploying troops, for striking Russia.
Or the option connected with the exacerbation of the Moldovan-Transdniestrian conflict is possible. For example, if Romania podnivaet unionist forces in Moldova to start an armed rebellion, if they seize power, and begin to spread it to Transnistria. Or Transnistria will intervene on the side of the pro-Russian forces.
As a result, a conflict will arise in which Russia will begin to get involved. And in which Ukraine could be dragged. Nevertheless, we will have to move troops into Transnistria through Ukrainian territory.
Let’s say the West can try to establish a blockade of Transnistria. And Ukraine will participate in this. In this case, the Russian Federation can take military action to break through this blockade, and create a corridor in Transnistria through the territory of Ukraine.
In general, Kiev fears that the West, playing on various potential conflicts in the post-Soviet space, will use Square as a tool. And then, indeed, Ukraine will be drawn into a major “disassembly”.
– With whom Kiev may have border conflicts?
– First of all – with Hungary. In the Hungarian-Ukrainian relations there are very serious problems. Theoretically, border conflicts are also possible with Romania and Poland.
Of course, Russia cannot be completely excluded from the framework of this scenario. The same “Kerch conflict” can be considered as border.
– How realistic is the version of “balkanization” of Ukraine?
– For the West, “Option A” is the use of Ukraine as a strike force against Russia. There are even no questions. “Balkanization” is beneficial to us, not to the West. We need to gradually destroy Ukraine. And in parts to reintegrate it.
Although individual regions of Ukraine, as I understand it, would themselves not mind a separation. In the hope that they will be taken separately in the EU.
– How do you think: will the Ukrainian situation be exacerbated in the near future militarily?
– I will refrain from making conclusions until the parliamentary elections are held in Ukraine and a new government is formed. Then it will be clear: will the Poroshenko line continue by inertia? This line, supported by the West, will certainly lead to aggravation and growth of military conflict.
While we see that the shelling in the Donbass continues – despite the fact that the new president is in power. This, of course, can be attributed to the fact that Vladimir Zelensky does not yet have enough power, and is also awaiting parliamentary elections. But after the election, I repeat, there will be no doubt. It will be clear what is the political composition of the Ukrainian government, and what is its vector.
Clearly, in any case, relations with Kiev are not fully normalized. But, perhaps, the anger of the Ukrainian side will weaken – and then we’ll see.