Can Ukrainian special services take advantage of the destabilization of the political situation in Russia?
The Ukrainian army should be ready to support the “transitional democratic government of public confidence in Russia. Such a statement on his Facebook page was made by the former chief editor of the Ukrainian version of Forbes magazine Maxim Kukhar.
He wrote that the units of the Ukrainian army urgently need to be transferred to the border with Russia to support democracy.
– It is necessary to train all the troops to support the new democratic authorities in the Russian Federation. The Parliament of Ukraine should now get together and give permission to the Supreme Commander to send troops to Russia, – he added.
At the same time, the journalist emphasized that some of the best brigades should be urgently pulled up to the border and started to teach the laws of the Russian Federation so that they can cope with public order protection in those regions that the government of public confidence of the Russian Federation will ask for, which, in his opinion, will hold early elections all authorities and lustration of current officials.
Kukhar also believes that all troops must be trained to support the new democratic authorities in the Russian Federation.
– At a minimum – no units from the Crimea, Donbass, and Rostov should be deployed to Moscow to suppress the revolution — one must be prepared to link all these forces by fighting, having arranged one or more offensive operations, – he wrote.
Of course, one cannot fail to note that this is far from the first and, probably, not the last schizophrenic statement from Kiev, whose author is obviously trying to catch a “hype” around the events of the past weekend in Moscow, which some have dubbed “rehearsal of the Maidan”. Of course, one can hardly take seriously statements about the threat of invasion of the Ukrainian army, even in the event of serious destabilization in Russia. Nevertheless, it is likely that the Ukrainian intelligence services, along with their Western counterparts, are trying to influence the undermining of the situation. Another question is how strong this influence can be.
It is hardly possible to speak of the existence in Ukraine of effective intelligence services that can influence the political situation in neighboring countries, however, Ukraine has unique experience in carrying out “color revolutions”, which, probably, local Maidan supporters would share with your colleagues.
So, is it possible that statements in the spirit of what Kukhar made are still worth listening to and being wary of?
– The Georgian journalist Georgy Gabunia recently showed a technology with which you can quickly create a high level of media around your person, – says Yevgeny Valyaev, political analyst at the Foundation for the Development of Civil Society Institutions of People’s Institutions of Civil Society.
– Former Ukrainian media specialist Maxim Kukhar attracted attention with more correct, but no less provocative statements. Of course, these his words should be perceived as a media provocation, with the help of which a person draws attention to himself. His statements that Ukraine should send troops to Russia to establish a democratic regime here is a classic postyronium for current social networks. Ironical content collects a large number of responses and regularly goes into trends. These serious words should not be subjected to any serious analysis. It is possible to respond to one postironium only with another postostronium.
– What is the reason for this statement? Surely, many in Ukraine would subscribe to it?
– In the words of Kukhar, you can find that image of the future strong and great Ukraine, which is actively pursuing a foreign policy. In fact, Kukhar wants to see Russia in Ukraine. Kukhar does not want his country to lose territories; he himself wants to deprive other countries of territories and sovereignty. In the posture of Kukhar, one can see deep regret about what modern Ukraine cannot achieve.
In Ukraine, lately it has been very popular among politicians to formulate images of the future. Vladimir Zelensky addressed this reception during his election campaign, did not refuse it even after he won them. The speeches of the Ukrainian president are often devoted to what a country should strive for and what it should achieve.
The speeches of the Ukrainian president are often devoted to what a country should strive for and what it should achieve. How to achieve this, how to increase specific indicators of human well-being and the level of the economy in general – these topics are fading into the background. We can say that Kuhar is in the media mainstream with his seemingly strange statements.
In Ukraine, we decided to punish two dozen companies operating in the Crimea.
– Speaking seriously, is it possible to be afraid of the influence of the Ukrainian special services on our internal processes?
– Ukraine after 2014 held a large personnel shift in law enforcement agencies. Many posts were then occupied by new people whose professional qualities were secondary to the Euro-Maid background of these people. With such a personnel policy, the effectiveness of special services began to decline. Under Zelensky, a new wave of personnel changes will take place. Even if more worthy people take many positions, it will take a lot of time to establish the work of special services and law enforcement agencies at least within the country. Now there can be no talk about the fact that Ukraine in its current position is able to deal with external issues, and even more so to develop some kind of scenario against Russia on its territory. We remember the wave of populist statements by many leaders of the Ukrainian “revolution” who dreamed of doing something with Russia. Some Ukrainian nationalists then promised to annex the southern regions of Russia to Ukraine, others were planning to march to Moscow, others said they would recruit pro-Ukrainian like-minded people in Russia, with the help of whom they would arrange a coup here. There were many fantasies, but apart from not the most active attempts to find like-minded people on the territory of Russia and sell them the image of a new national Ukraine, nothing else came of it.
– By the way, developing the topic. Maybe they can share with our “Maidan” some coup technologies that they successfully held twice?
- The Russian opposition is as far removed from ties with Ukrainian politicians as possible. There is no sense in this for some and for others. The Russian opposition has its own political agenda, which seeks to circumvent foreign policy issues as much as possible, focusing on internal problems. This is a big difference from Ukrainian politicians, who cannot do without mentioning that Russia is to blame for all the troubles of Ukraine.
Technologies of the “Ukrainian Maidan” are a standard set for conducting political struggle. They alone do not carry any uniqueness and are not able to lead to any unambiguous result. There are too many additional inputs for these technologies to play a decisive role. To achieve maximum results for themselves, any opposition groups in any country in the world use the entire list of available technologies, starting with information campaigns and participating in elections, ending with protests. This is the essence of the system of checks and balances when various political groups, competing among themselves, seek to come to power. The very existence of the opposition in the country does not mean that its state system is threatened by the “Maidan scenario”.
– Another strange statement by a strange journalist from Ukraine, – says Eduard Popov, director of the Center for Public and Information Cooperation “Europe”.
– It is hardly worth reacting to such a trifle. In Ukraine, far stranger and more terrible calls are often heard from people who, unlike Kukhar, have real power and influence on society.
– Can Ukraine really take advantage of the turmoil in Russia?
- In case of upheavals in Russia, Ukraine can not just do it – it will certainly take advantage of the temporary weakening of its neighbor and send troops. Ukrainians today sincerely resent Russia, accusing it of occupying the allegedly Ukrainian Crimea and Donbass. But it was the Ukrainians who first began to participate in undermining the unity of Russia, to promote separatism in our regions. Let us leave aside the conflict in Abkhazia, where the Ukrainians, together with the Georgians, fought against Russian volunteers. But the Ukrainians took part in both Chechen campaigns. We are talking about UNA-UNSO militants, but this organization was closely patronized by Ukrainian intelligence services. Without their assistance, they could not have massively infiltrated the territory of the warring Chechnya. And in August 2008, full-time Ukrainian military personnel — special forces (my Ossetian friends personally encountered him), and combat calculations of air defense systems — participated in the attack on South Ossetia and Russian peacekeepers along with Georgians.
Let me remind you: in July, Russia rendered unprecedented great help to Ukraine, the western and southwestern regions of which were affected by floods and landslides. Ukraine “thanked” Russia by sending its military to kill the Russians. Therefore, it is worth reminding Ukrainians who first started this war. And today, God forbid, happen in Russia a mess like “Maidan”, Ukraine will not hesitate to take advantage of this.
Who took whom in this story “weakly” – Ukraine took Russia, or vice versa – opinions differ
I must admit: a considerable proportion of the blame lies with the Russian authorities, which have been dragging for 5 years with the recognition of Donbass. It was necessary to support the anti-Nazi uprising in New Russia in the spring of 2014, and then the Ukrainian Nazis would not be a party in power, but rebels. Sooner or later, I am sure this will return. But how much time is lost, how many people have died? How many young citizens of Ukraine grew up in sincere hatred of Russia?
– Do Ukrainian intelligence agencies really carry out subversive work against Russia?
– Without a doubt, they take part in this. I can judge this not only from media reports, but also from personal experience. True, the resources of the Ukrainian special services are not comparable with the US. An important aid to the Ukrainian special services is porridge, which is in the head of many of our officials, and their indifference to state interests. This is especially dangerous in the regions bordering Ukraine and in regions with a large diaspora of Ukrainian guest workers.
– Is there any opposition to this?
- I think our special services are already dealing with this issue. How effective? I’m not to judge. I can only say that the authorities of my native region, Rostov Region, are not up to par and misunderstand the Ukrainian factor.
– And how much, in your opinion, can the Russian opposition use the technology of the Ukrainian “Maidan”? Can Kiev share experience here?
– Why can? Already uses. Clashes in Moscow – this is the rehearsal of the Russian “Maidan”. The authorities did not destroy the Nazi reptile in 2014 and therefore received a natural reaction in Moscow. The longer the situation of uncertainty in the Donbass drags on, the more compromises we make, and, more precisely, unilateral concessions, the more brazen and confident the Ukrainians will behave. However, the same applies to Georgians.
The disgusting flash mob that was arranged in Donetsk at the suggestion of Pushilin is Zelensky’s demand for autonomy to Donbass, after the blood that Ukrainians shed in Donbass, this is a manifestation of the Donbas merger policy. Or flirting with Medvedchuk, when the LNR authorities presented him with four Ukrainian soldiers arrested for organizing terrorist attacks in the republic. What have we achieved this? Alexander Zakharchenko would never have taken such treacherous and, most importantly, stupid steps. The irritation in our society is growing. And prolonging the process of “appeasing the aggressor” (Ukraine or Georgia, it does not matter) only contributes to discontent in society. As one friend of mine, a doctor of science and a professor, said, the government lost all the potential for trust gained in March 2014 in Crimea. Instead of directing the energy of society to positive goals, it itself contributes to the growth of an explosive situation.