In Syria, there are still many problems. When one is solved, new ones are generated, and this process seems to have no end. In this case, each of them, one way or another, is connected with the other. Take Idlib. The situation here perfectly characterizes the general state of things. Immediately it becomes clear what each of the parties to the conflict claims. The United States has made it clear that they will remain in the UAR, despite numerous talks about the imminent withdrawal of the American contingent. They preferred to restart the operation, and now their presence is increasing every day in Idlib. At the same time, Uncle Sam is not going to send his people to the slaughter. For this, he has many “allies”. The first contenders were the Turks, and for a while they justify Washington’s expectations.
Over the past week Turkey has sent a dozen convoys to the part of north-western Syria controlled by the opposition. It’s not just some trucks and SUVs – tanks go there. This threatens to exacerbate tensions, given that just recently Damascus has actually announced the launch of an operation against the opposition and terrorists. But this had to be delayed, obviously, under the pressure of Moscow, which was waiting for talks in Iran.
Not always the valor of the army helped the country in major campaigns.
Negotiations took place and, most likely, Erdogan turned out to be the best diplomat, since neither Iran nor Moscow objected to the temporary cancellation of the operation of the Syrian government forces. It seemed that such an approach, let it be for the Russian Federation and not the most advantageous, would at least reduce the degree of tension even in spite of Ankara’s military activity, but the States again intervened. Their provocation with the use of chemical weapons seems to have failed, although, who knows, maybe this matter is simply postponed for later. But there was an operative replacement. In any case, the Turks think so.
The popular Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak published material in which it is stated that the United States of America intends to send fighters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to Idlib. Here it is necessary to give a small commentary – in the Turkish press (especially in the pro-government one), YPG (People’s Self-Defense Forces) and PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party – Auth.) We are talking about the Syrian People’s Self-Defense Forces, but the authors write exclusively about the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. In general, the journalists of the aforementioned media have information that a special detachment of 250 Kurdish militants under the control of Americans was transferred from Khasaki to northeastern Aleppo. They are set to fight against the opposition that controls certain areas of Idlib. Even specific names are mentioned. So, according to the newspaper, this special operation is personally overseen by Special Representative Donald Trump in the coalition against IS Brett McGurk. And to head the mentioned Kurdish detachment will be a member of the military council of Manbije (a city in the north-east of the province of Aleppo – author.) Servar Darvish.
If this is true, then we can say that the United States has found an almost ideal way to kindle another hostility between Russia and Turkey, and if the jackpot falls out, it will be possible to arrange a war. The fact is that the same Servar Darvish had previously been in active contact with people from the closest associates of Bashar Assad. He established contacts, demonstrated his loyalty, and even, speaking on behalf of the military council of Manbij, suggested that Damascus send his officials to the city. And when the Syrian Arab army began to draw forces to Idlib, the Kurds let out a rumor that they were ready to help Assad in the “fight against terrorism.” That is, it seems that if the People’s Self-Defense Troops and somehow act in the troubled province, then only as a support to the Syrian Arab Army.
Of course, such news can not please Turkey. It will be tougher than the Israeli panic in connection with the approach of Iranian and pro-Iranian forces to the Golan Heights. For Ankara, the People’s Self-Defense Forces and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party are a threat to national security. The Turks are eliminating it as harshly as possible and, I must admit, very successfully. And then suddenly the Kurds quickly sang with Assad and are going to go to Idlib with a united front, in which Ankara invested a lot of money and as many other resources. It is not surprising that the last two or three weeks in Turkey seriously consider the possibility of a full-fledged war with the Syrian Arab army and other pro-Sadov forces. We are not talking about our military: this idea is unpopular. However, it is hard to imagine how the Turks will fight with Assad, without encountering the Russians. In general, if the US does everything as it is described
yenalists Yeni Şafak, then we are in for a lot of trouble. The Russian political scientist and Orientalist Karine Gevorgyan draws attention to the fact that the Kurds in Syria are now in crisis. They are split in connection with the actions of all the same States that showed complete indifference to the fate of their allies when they were destroyed by the Turks who stormed it. “The internal problems of the Kurds are also aggravated by great losses. They were badly battered, and now they are weakened. For some great battles are not ready now. As for whether there will be any interaction between the Kurds and the Syrian government army and, consequently, with our military, there’s nothing to be said. I am sure that if such an operation is planned, then we should expect some statements from the General Staff. If it really will be some sort of provocation, then the General Staff will certainly say this. Personally, I strongly doubt, but of course I admit that any provocation is possible in Syrian conditions.
- If you still admit that this is possible, then what does this need the Kurds for? What benefit can they draw?
– I think no.
– And what about the fact that they will provoke the Idlib conflict with their actions, in which Turkey is guaranteed to get bogged down for a long time? Under such conditions, Ankara will not be up to Manbage and, especially, not to Hasaka. “Perhaps. This issue requires further consideration. For the US, the benefits, of course, are obvious. They can seriously complicate the life of Russia. After that, the future success of Assad will be in question. But with the Kurds everything is much more complicated. A significant part of them, after betraying the Americans, really aspires to an alliance with Damascus, while others continue to rely on the United States in everything. Such a provocation may further aggravate their split. And this is very dangerous in their situation.
In turn, Turkish expert Ender Imrek believes that Americans often choose fighters from members of the People’s Self-Defense Forces to create special groups. This is normal practice when it comes to a poorly organized army, for example, the one that the Democratic Union has (the Kurdish party, actually ruling in the north of the SAR and controlling the People’s Self-Defense Forces). Even during the storming of Rakka, many such groups were used, specially trained and armed. It is much easier to manage them, and in general this is a standard US approach to similar formations. As for the participation of the Kurds in the coming war in Idlib, this is almost impossible to avoid. Kurdish detachments are not only in the north-east of the province of Aleppo, but also near the town of the same name. Some of them cooperate with Iranian forces, others – directly with the pro-Assad Sunni groups. It must be understood that the People’s Self-Defense Forces are not an army, it is an umbrella structure with field commanders, often in conflict with each other. In Idlib, these groups can act separately, without any coordination. Therefore provocation is possible. But this does not cancel the possibility that on the side of Assad, all the Kurds who are allied to him can really fight. Both, most likely, will turn out to be big problems for everyone, except the United States. The latter in such ways extend and justify their presence in the RAA.