The story of the downed IL-20 has not yet been completed. It continues, and its development goes in the wrong direction. This case was the reason for the crisis in the Russian-Israeli relations, however, it must be admitted, Moscow this time also showed gentleness towards Tel Aviv. This is strange, given that the initial accusations of the Ministry of Defense were formidable.
Everyone was waiting for serious consequences, but it seems that Benjamin Netanyahu managed to turn everything in his favor this time. Yes, the S-300s were delivered to Syria – the transfer was recently completed, and now the military is stationing them in various parts of the Arab Republic. It seems to be done with the aim of not giving Israel or the Americans freedom of action in the Syrian sky. Probably, that was originally assumed, however, for a month, Moscow apparently changed its mind.
There is information that Russia already in the first days after the incident with the downed aircraft appealed to the IDF with the request to create additional communication channels for better interaction in the future. The question arises – why? If the sky is closed from the Israelis, then a rich message with them is completely useless. It can be limited to standard formats for such cases. It is obvious that even then our high-ranking military officials and field officers understood perfectly well that the Israeli Air Force would still have access to the Syrian airspace. Then the story with additional communication channels is easy to understand – we just needed improved coordination, so that in the future there would be no incidents like what happened with the IL-20. And so – no one will be too strict with Israel, and he will continue his activities, temporarily interrupted.
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Probably in October or November, his aircraft will continue to do their job. However, it is possible that they are already doing it – information appeared in the Israeli and some other Middle Eastern media that the IDF still carries out secret missions that Russia knows about. So the Iranians, who are the main targets for Jewish pilots, will have hard times.
But Russia, it seems, has found some way out. For prestige, it is harmful, but in order to maintain an acceptable relationship with Israel will have to make some concessions. At first there was information that Russia was disbanding separate Iranian bases in Syria. Particularly interesting in this story is that one of the first was cleared from the Iranian presence base T-4. It can be said that in recent years she has been the heart of the entire Iranian operation in the SAR. Here were located the large forces of the Persians, while the T-4 is the largest base in the whole of Syria. And now our S-300 is located here with personnel and additional forces.
This was not the case. Following the T-4, other bases were also disbanded. Some of them were taken by our military, and at least one went to the Syrians. It should be understood at the same time that many of those Iranian military who were “evicted” from their bases are forced to return home. For their location there is simply no suitable place. Foreign media write that the Persians return to their homeland by the hundreds. What is the reason? And why did Moscow do this with its loyal ally? This is probably the cause of all of Israel. According to one version, Tel Aviv warned Moscow that it would destroy the S-300 if they would cover the Iranians. For this reason, they tried to move as far as possible from the locations of our air defense systems. But there are other versions.
Our source in the military leadership of the Russian Federation reports that such manipulations do occur in Syria. They are connected with the new approach of the top leadership of Russia to the Syrian campaign. Moscow wants to make it less unprofitable. For example, in the near future, the donation of weapons to Syrians and various allied groups in the republic will cease. Now they will have to pay. Damascus treated this with understanding. In the case of the T-4, an agreement was reached with the Iranians. They were explained that this area of Homs is very convenient to accommodate the C-300. In addition, there is the necessary infrastructure.
In general, now negotiations are underway about areas located near the Kurdish territories. In accordance with the new approach, it is now more profitable to move the Iranian forces to the south. This will additionally protect Syrian territory from aggression by the United States and Israel. States will not be worried about the proximity of individual Iranian bases with their facilities. In addition, Americans are very concerned about the cooperation observed between Iranians and some Kurdish troops in recent months. And for the Israelis, in this case, the attack on Persian objects will become almost impossible, because they will have to break through dozens and even hundreds of kilometers of airspace controlled by our C-300 and other air defense systems, and then it doesn’t matter which way they try to penetrate side of jordan or lebanon. So there will be no crisis in Russian-Iranian relations. The situation simply returns to what it was before, though with slight changes – Tel Aviv will not bomb the Persians, and those, in turn, will cease to be an irritant for him, since they will change their dislocation.