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No longer brothers in arms

the interests of Iran and Russia in Syria now diverge

Hezbollah leader Nasrullah said that a number of countries, in particular the monarchies of the Persian Gulf and Russia, are assisting Israel in squeezing out his organization and the sponsoring Iran from Syria. Such a scenario has long been predicted by experts and does not surprise them.

Writer Eduard Limonov recalls that it was Iran and Hezbollah that carried the brunt of the war in Syria: “The Shi’ite national formations are listed for the last six months – from January 18, 2018 to June 2, 2018:

the Lebanese – 1229 killed,

Afghans – 892,

Iranians – 549,

Pakistanis – 155,

Iraqis – 116.

Total – 2,941 dead.»

So the war is not yet extinct. Now we’ll figure out who is fighting. Even the cited list of losses for six months suggests that the main burden of land warfare is borne by Shiite forces. With all due respect to the army of Bashar Assad, experts, analysts and military journalists are convinced that the Syrian army is now small – from 30 thousand to 50 thousand people.

Russian units of the military air defense system in Syria «are great, but the Russian ground contingent in Syria is small, it boils down to the service bases in Khmeimim and Tartus plus the guarding units».

Who are the main forces in the war in Syria? It turns out that this is Iran.

Iran controls about 100 thousand soldiers (the number of 150 thousand was also mentioned). Of these, 50-80 thousand fighters from Hezbollah and the same number of Shiite volunteers from Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Russia, thus, provides Syria with aviation, provides intelligence and supports Syria and Iran on the diplomatic front. Damascus itself provides not so many soldiers as bases and legitimacy.

Iran is the largest state in the Middle East. The population is about 80 million people. Iran is the largest Shiite state. For comparison, another largest power in the Middle East – Turkey – has a population of 80 million too. Saudi Arabia is much smaller: its population is 35 million. It is important to know who is who in the Middle East.

Thus, we came to the conclusion that this is Iran which bears the brunt of the war, and Syria and Russia are more likely to assist him. For example, with the capture of Aleppo (the city was taken in December 2016),these were the Iranian units, together with Hezbollah and other Shiite formations, with the huge support of the Russian Air Force’s airspace,  taking Aleppo and transferring the captured territories to the Assad army. And these Iraqi Shiites took Mosul from the southwest.

By now, up to 60% of the territory of Syria has been under Iranian control. Thus, the Iranian Armed Forces use the military airfield Tadmor (Palmyra) in the center of the country, allowing ammunition to be transferred to Syria from Iran. (And you thought that it was simply that the remains of ISIS were grouped together and tried to just capture Palmira? No, it was not just that: they were trying to break through to the airfield. There were some other anti-Iranian forces.)

Do you think why Israel became so agitated and aggressive? This is all the Israeli reaction to the strengthening of Iran.

Pursuing their own goals, American, Israeli aircraft and missiles have already several times bombed Syrian bases used by Iranian servicemen. As a result of Israeli strikes, the leadership of the Syrian Armed Forces announced even a decision to close the access to Syrian air force bases to the forces of the Allies from Iran. It is unfriendly towards those who, through the price of heavy losses, won Assad of Syria? Very unfriendly. Such a picture loomed about. ”

“It can not be said that the leader of Hezbollah Nasrallah” attacked with criticism, “as it is customary to say in the case of sharp statements on the verge of a foul,” writes Anatoly Nesmiyyan. “But the fact of the increasingly cautious attitude and the Kremlin’s distinct dissatisfaction with the” allies “is quite obvious “Perhaps, only the consumers of Russian TV-chatter still have the confidence that the group of” good guys “in Syria actively defeats” the bad guys. “Accordingly, Iran and Hezbollah are our brothers forever because they fight shoulder to shoulder.

Everyone decides their own interests, tearing Syria to pieces. Pieces are few, mouths are many, respectively, as in any warm company there are skirmishes and conflicts for one or another particularly tasty piece of pie.

Nasrallah appears to have reacted to the recent armed clash between Hezbollah fighters and the Russian military police in East Kalamun, which ended relatively safely without casualties. However, disagreements and conflicts between different gangs and Russian military are gradually becoming the norm. In addition, it should not be forgotten that most of the pro-Asad militants are fighting not so much for the idea as for money and booty, but for the total marauding in the occupied territory, which is quite ordinary.

It is thus pretty difficult to entrust the Syrian military and police officers the function of controlling the criminal situation in the occupation zone, if only because the Syrians themselves are largely engaged in the same.

The army has no Assad, the basis of power structures has long been composed of various semi-regular formations of different subordination, the motivation of most of them is exactly the same as that of foreign mercenaries.

The Israeli-Russian coordination of security activities reached its peak – the Russian Defense Minister called the Minister of Defense Israel to Lieberman and invited him to Moscow, “Mikhail Onufrienko writes.

  • In the opinion of high-ranking politicians, agreements have been reached on the following directions:
  • 1) The army of Assad returns to the south of Syria to the border with Israel,
  • 2) Russia agrees that there will be no presence of Iran or Hezbollah in this area,
  • 3) For its part, Israel will accept a return Assad to the south of Syria, if the Russians fulfill their obligations to remove Iran and Hezbollah from the Israeli border,
  • 4) In addition, Russia will publicly call on all foreign elements to leave Syria, referring to Iran, Hezbollah, as well as the United States and Turkey. This is important because Israel believes that the Iranians will not easily give up Syria.
  • 5) Israel will retain freedom of action against securing Iran throughout Syria. Of course, the agreements still have to be tested on the ground, but it seems that both the US and Russia now stand openly with Israel and adopt its policy, and this can be considered a significant achievement. Seven years after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria and after it was predicted that Assad will not survive, the almost completely returns Syria to his control – with Israel, giving this process legitimacy. In this context, a high-ranking political source said: “Asad was and remains a monster who killed his people, but this is a question for the international community and Arab countries, we can not remedy this world, Israel must take care of its own security.” The US is considered the question of abandoning one of its most important military facilities in Syria, as they are preparing to enter into negotiations with Russia and Jordan. In an article that appeared on Sunday in the Saudi newspaper “Asharq Al-Awsat”, it is reported that the whole x prevent escalation between old enemies – Iran and Israel, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield tried to make a proposal for a tripartite meeting, which would include the withdrawal of all Syrian and non-Syrian militias from the area on the border with Jordan, a width of 15.5 miles. Also, it is proposed to withdraw rebels to the Idlib province, which is under the control of the rebels, and to open the Syrian-Jordan border crossing.»

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