After a planned incident in the Kerch Strait and the introduction of a strange but politically and geographically motivated martial law in several regions of Ukraine, its president took a long-awaited Moscow-partners ’step: introduced a bill to the Parliament to terminate the 1997 Friendship and Cooperation Treaty with the Russian Federation.
If you remove unnecessary pathos from the verbal waterfall of exalted Kiev officials, then the Treaty itself will not be prolonged trivially, and the bill in the Rada has the character of a ritual nail to the coffin:
– Poroshenko submitted to the Parliament a bill on the termination of the treaty on friendship and cooperation with Russia, said the presidential representative in parliament, Irina Lutsenko. Earlier, Poroshenko put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) to terminate the treaty. At the same time, it was explained that this is not a denunciation, but a decision not to renew it.
Such a step is not unexpected, it was spoken about long ago, but Ukraine itself did not rush to denounce the Treaty, waiting for the expiration of its next 10-year term. For Ukraine, the situation with this treaty is twofold: on the one hand, why is it needed in the context of “aggression from the northern neighbor”, on the other, under this Treaty there is a number of later international agreements of the Russian Federation. In March, I wrote that with the fate of the Treaty a small litmus test will appear on the subject of the further course of the “struggle of the Nanai boys”, which is presented to the outside world as “the opposition of the Russian Federation and Ukraine”:
– So if the Russian Federation and Ukraine are not set off in the near future in a real hot war, then there are some reasons to believe that the Ukrainian president and Russian part-time businessman Petro Poroshenko will not denounce the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership with the aggressor country. Yes, its presence is very inconvenient from the point of view of intra-Ukrainian propaganda (and the elections are on the nose!), And it will cause caustic and caustic jokes. But the main thing is to wait on the throne of the resident in Moscow for any Sobchak, and there it is possible to agree again. Their own people, after all, are from the roots of Vinnitsa, Rovno, Berdichev and Lvov. The only question is whether there is enough time …
Related events only confirmed this. Organized by Kiev Ukrainians in coordination with the Moscow “colleagues”, the capture of three Ukrainian troughs in the Black Sea in a logical way led to a verbal escalation and the introduction of the so-called “martial law” in a number of regions of Ukraine. Which is valid for 30 days, but there is reason to believe that it can be extended. Since the so-called “pre-election race” begins in Ukraine (although there is only one horse), it is already clear what and how the administration of Peter Poroshenko will do next.
If you do not go into small and interesting details of the internal Ukrainian “political life”, Ukraine is at the initial stage of building autocracy or dictatorship. There are all necessary conditions for this.
First, Ukraine is too poor for any kind of (albeit with a lot of flaws) representative democracy. And its general environment is too primitive for some political coalitions and lobbying the interests of certain groups.
Secondly, the first stage of building the dictatorship (deliberately or not, it doesn’t matter) took place in 2014, when the Crimea and Eastern Donbass were withdrawn from Ukraine in coordination with Moscow and the European Union. Therefore, in the subsequent elections of Poroshenko (no one even suspected about the upcoming presidency in Ukraine before the end of March 2014) and the Verkhovna Rada did not participate from 5 to 7 million Ukrainian voters. These figures are very important, since Ukraine has been an electorally divided society since 1991. Simply put, approximately 25% of Ukrainian voters were removed from the “electoral field”.
Thirdly, due to the collapse of the Ukrainian economy, the former opposition of the Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk lost most, if not all, of its meaning. In Ukraine, business has not been capitalized for several years and the current state of the country can only be described as a permanent disaster. Foreign trade in any goods (and almost half of the exports are agricultural products) for Ukraine is deeply unprofitable. In 2017, this deficit amounted to 6.33 billion dollars. This impressive hole has so far been managed to close due to the positive foreign trade balance
This impressive hole has so far been managed to close at the expense of a positive foreign trade balance for services, which includes payments from the Russian Federation for gas pumping (2.5–3 billion dollars a year) and transfers of Ukrainian guest workers to their home country (6–7 billion dollars a year). But it will not last forever, since from 2020, payments from the Russian Federation for gas transit are likely to drop sharply.
If we add to this the complete absence in Ukraine of any economic reforms, a clear rejection of the liberalization of agricultural land turnover and the introduction of measures to combat corruption (which the EU and the US insist), then Poroshenko has only one method left – to force military hysteria inside Ukraine. Well, they do not boast of the fact that the cost of gas for consumers from December 2018 to January 2020 will increase by almost 2 times – from 6.5 to 12.3 thousand hryvnia (the first increase took place in November)? For three years now the country has not bought “Russian gas”, and its prices are only rising.
Therefore, the third stage in the construction of embroidery dictatorship is underway in Ukraine, during which a number of southern and eastern regions of the country, where incidents with “not entirely correct expression of will” are possible, have been transferred to “martial law”.
There is no sense in reproaching Peter Poroshenko for wanting to stay in power (why not?), And electoral geography is a rather stubborn thing.
Thus, the main political task now in Ukraine is the second term of the owner of “Roshen”. And one should not naively believe that he will not become a prologue to further dictatorship in Ukraine. In other countries, dictatorial regimes were also not built immediately, but gradually. At the same time, for some time the population and the intelligentsia even preserved the illusion that there could be some other result in the presidential or parliamentary elections. Ukraine is no better than some of the republics of the former USSR, where the real Asian “rudeness” with the permanent father of the people has been created.
Naturally, for the victory of Poroshenko, the Kremlin and Kiev “partners” in agreement with the European Union will go to great lengths, up to a small (or not very small) war. Moreover, Moscow, with the idiotic jailing of Ukrainian sailors, made an impressive bid for “helping a partner.” It cannot be said that the people of Ukraine do not understand where their country is heading, despite the howl of the paid powder powders. I will give a long quote from the text of the Ukrainian blogger:
- For example, why send small boats to the Sea of Azov on the eve of winter, when the sea is ice-tight and shipping is suspended? The only Ukraine icebreaker “Captain Belousov” is not able to clear the entire sea, that is, the military equipment was sent to where it will be guaranteed to be inactive for the whole winter. Why did the Ukrainian government set up Ukrainian sailors for bullets, condemning them to wounds and shameful captivity? Moreover, in the same way they handed over the Crimea. Making round eyes and including a fool. Schemes have not changed. Martial law made sense in 2014. Now it makes sense only as a statement of fact (and only in areas adjacent to the front line).
But now they will announce it, naturally, not for this. One goal – dictatorship and the suppression of resistance to the regime within the country. Not to the front will be thrown all the forces of the state, and on the heads of citizens.
Martial law will be, but we are not going to free anything, we are not going to fight, Poroshenko says. That is – stupid dictatorship. Now there is no doubt, for which the Ukrainian sailors were sent under bullets with orders not to resist. For the sake of maintaining the power of one person. With the law on martial law, you can read the link. Censorship is introduced, public associations and parties are prohibited if necessary, and protests and rallies are possible only after a gracious permission from above.
Elections are prohibited, but in our case they can be resolved, which does not change the essence of the matter. Preparation for elections in such conditions is preparation for the election of a single person, the rest will have no chance. Have you laughed at the “referendums” and the “elections” that the Russians held in the occupied territories at gunpoint? Get now Ukrainian elections at gunpoint. Denerization of all Ukraine is completed … ”
I always, with dozens of examples, facts and documents, wrote that Ukraine had been supplying electricity for a year and a half from the Russian Federation to the Crimea, and Moscow was transferring military equipment to Kiev clearly and covertly. Russian banks actively lent all this time to the Ukrainian economy (although the VTB subsidiary there has already worked out a provisional administration), and companies willingly supplied coal, diesel fuel, oil and fuel elements to Ukraine. You can enumerate these facts by pages, but it is useless, because such factography will still be recognized by “conspiracy.”
This is the victory of Poroshenko in the first round of the presidential elections in this country. And then everything will be much easier. Unless, of course, force majeure circumstances intervene.