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Poroshenko urgently needs a five-day war with Russia

The trigger will be a new provocation in the Kerch Strait

The Kremlin is preparing for a military strike in Ukraine. This was stated by the Ukrainian leader  Poroshenko during the debate at the UN General Assembly.


According to him, strengthening the aggressive actions of Russia to the level of a full-scale war is no longer unrealistic because of the concentration of a large grouping of the Russian army near the Ukrainian border.


According to Poroshenko, the total number of “illegal armed groups in the Donbass is now about 35 thousand militants, as well as 2,100 troops from the Russian regular armed forces.” He added that, in general, more than 87,000 Russian Armed Forces troops are deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border.


– Military experts unequivocally note that the armed group on the Russian border with Ukraine is a tactical offensive strike group. It has nothing to do with defense. They are intended for a military strike, the Kremlin is preparing for this. That is why we must ensure comprehensive real-time monitoring of the situation along the Russian border with Ukraine, – Poroshenko said.


Earlier, the President of Ukraine declared the need to introduce NATO ships into the Black and Azov Seas. In his opinion, this is necessary in order to protect Ukraine from “aggression” on the part of Russia.


– One of the possible options for supporting Ukraine could be the entry of several NATO ships into the Black Sea, because this is the goal of global security, – the politician said in an interview with NBC.


It is clear why Kiev stirs up passions. Back in January, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, in an interview with RG, spoke directly about this: “I do not rule out the appearance in Ukraine in 2019 of new provocations against Russia, since this is the only way to remind Ukraine of itself to the international community, primarily the US and the EU whose trust in Kiev is rapidly falling.”


– The US administration actually controls the Kiev authorities and Poroshenko personally. The results of Poroshenko’s four-year work as head of state are skeptical even by Ukrainian experts. The results of the local elections held on December 23, 2018 in 78 united territorial communities in 13 regions of Ukraine, in which “Batkivshchyna” received the most support from the population, also confirmed the low electoral rating of the current president. Poroshenko is trying to correct the deplorable picture through his positioning as a tireless fighter against the “Kremlin threat”, – Patrushev said.


The secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation also did not rule out a sharp escalation of the Kiev armed conflict in the Donbas. And he warned that such a scenario is fraught with serious negative consequences for Ukraine and the West.


And here the only question arises: are the current words of Poroshenko a signal that it is precisely the escalation of the conflict in the Donbas? Under what conditions will Kiev cross the red line and decide on a force scenario?


  • The prime cause of the aggravation of the situation around Donbass will be Poroshenko’s desire to disrupt the presidential elections,” said the deputy of the third and fourth convocations, retired colonel Viktor Alksnis. – If the rating of the head of the Ukrainian state remains extremely low in order to maintain power, he will have to cancel the elections. And for this purpose – to declare martial law in Ukraine.


I do not exclude that for this they can go into the course of provocation. For example, the repetition of the Kerch incident – an attempt to break into the strait of a group of Ukrainian military boats, on board which may be observers from the OSCE or journalists of foreign media. For Poroshenko, the main thing would be to shed blood.


– The President of Ukraine assures that a strike force is concentrated on the border from the Russian side. What is the situation in reality?


– In the Russian group, which is concentrated in the Southern Military District, there is nothing unusual. This district is most efficient now. And this is due, of course, to the fact that at present the threat of insecurity in Russia comes from the southern direction.


There is no doubt that our group is ready – including by force – to stop the provocations of the Ukrainian side. I think even the United States and its NATO allies are extremely concerned about this situation.


– What do the NATO partners see the danger?


– They understand that if Ukraine provokes Russia into military actions, then, according to Western military experts, the“ independent ”will last a maximum of five to six days. In fact, the situation of August 2008 – the Five-Day War with Georgia – will repeat, and as a result of this conflict, Ukraine may lose a significant part of its territory.


I note, this development of the situation is Russia’s hand to us. The issue of the Donbas and the land corridor to the Crimea will have to be solved sooner or later. But first we will not start.


First of all, this requires political will from the Russian leadership. And we remember how dramatically the position of the Kremlin changed after a sudden visit to Moscow in the spring of 2014 — at the height of the onset of the DNR and LNR — the OSCE Chairman-in-Office, Switzerland’s President Didier Burkhalter. He met with Vladimir Putin and managed to bring some arguments to the Russian president. After that, Putin said that the Russian side called on representatives of the South-East of Ukraine “to create the necessary conditions for dialogue” with the authorities in Kiev.


Therefore, I do not exclude that in the event of a new escalation, the West will put maximum pressure on the Russian leadership. In order for the provocation of Kiev to be lowered on the brakes-so that Russia does not apply tough measures against the overlooked Ukrainian provocateurs.


– There are some signs, how are we going to act in this situation?


– On February 14, presidential aide Vladislav Surkov took part in a meeting of the Council of Commanders of the Union of Donbass Volunteers, which was held in Moscow’s President Hotel. Here it is necessary to understand: this hotel is under the control of the presidential administration, and if commanders who fought in the Donbas in 2014 are gathered there, this is not just that.


I think in this way the Kremlin slightly shook a finger at the Ukrainian leadership. Our intelligence may have provided some information about upcoming provocations in the Donbas or the Crimea, and the Kremlin warned Kiev: don’t do that.


But, I repeat, the problem is that the leadership of Ukraine is directly interested in a military conflict with Russia. Kiev hopes that this will accelerate the admission of Ukraine to NATO, that the West in this situation will intensify assistance to the “independent”, including the supply of arms and ammunition. And in the end, he hopes that the West will not allow the Russian army to intervene in the situation.


We should remember: we will still have to solve the problem with Ukraine, otherwise the situation will become more complicated for us every year. And sooner or later, just 400 km from Moscow, in the Belgorod region, there will be American military bases with missiles aimed at the capital of Russia.

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