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Putin and Erdogan did not agree: war began in Idlib

The peace that the Kremlin and Ankara tried to establish will not work

Until recently, the main concern of all more or less legal armed groups in Syria was the Islamic State. This education has been a headache for everyone for several years. Moreover, there were serious risks that without foreign intervention in a year or two Syria, and, possibly, Iraq and Lebanon, in addition, would be completely under the rule of fanatics. But Russia and the United States realized it in time and sent their military to the SAR.


In one and a half years, these states managed to practically destroy the pseudo-caliphate, in any case, geographically it became ten times smaller. And now, if the people of Baghdadi (the leader of the Islamic state ) will raise their heads, then only with the condition of complete connivance from the forces that now dominate the Arab Republic.


But as the sunset of ISIS approached, it became clear that in the near future the main problem of Syria would be the confrontation of foreigners in the struggle for the division of spheres of influence. Russia and the United States did not hide their ambitions and rather willingly got involved in a mediated war, which, it seems, initially none of them planned. They rather carefully avoided sharp corners and, in spite of sometimes hostile statements, still managed not to bring the situation to an open conflict. True, over time, the hands of others began to pull their hands to the tasty piece more aggressively. This is primarily about the Turks. They, while Russia and the United States competed in who will liberate more land from the IS, began to seize the north-western territories, for which neither Moscow nor Washington had any special species.


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They did it well, I must admit. First, they took the northern part of the province of Aleppo, then the north-west. Well, when everyone suddenly switched to Idlib, because it was almost finished with the IS, it turned out that almost all of them were headed by Erdogan’s people.


Damascus wanted to launch a military operation against militants who were hiding in the governorate, but its ally, Russia, preferred negotiations with Ankara. As a result, a great war, it seems, should not have happened. But on paper, the situation is usually somewhat distorted. Of course, all the experts understood that the consent of Putin, Assad and Erdogan would not be enough for the peace, however, it is obvious that some of them took on more than they should.


For example, Turkey has pledged to deal with all militants who disagree with the truce. Literally in the very first hours, the terrorists in Idlib declared their irreconcilability towards Russia and Assad. Moreover, some of them even promised to start a trip to Damascus. The hike, of course, did not take place – it would have been insane, but here at once in Idlib everything began to move. The militants of Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham, who, in essence, is the continuer of Dzhebhat an-Nusra, began to fight with everyone in a row within the designated province. At first, the clashes were not very intense, and there was little hope that the Turks would still be able to negotiate with the terrorists. At least, they attempted – militants were offered self-dissolution.


Some of the terrorists thought about what to do, others pretended to think. The situation was tangled, however, there were few serious clashes. Now everything became clear – the Turks could not agree with them, and Idlib again blazes.


The main opponents at this stage of the war are the terrorists of Djabhat al-Nusra and the groups opposing them, which are part of the pro-Turkish opposition coalition called the National Liberation Front. Especially fierce battles take place in the north and south of the province, less intense fighting takes place almost along the entire perimeter of the idlib demilitarized zone.

Turkish expert Ender Imrek sees this as a logical continuation of the plan of Putin and Erdogan. There was no other way out of the situation.

When separate groups refused the conditions that they were offered, they were given time to think. Already several months have passed, and clashes on the borders of Idlib continued. This threatened not only the agreement, but Erdogan’s reputation in general. He asked not to touch Idlib, and in return he promised to deal with his internal problems.

He asked not to touch Idlib, and in return promised to deal with his internal problems. If he continued to pull, then the Syrian regime would have more reasons to send soldiers to Idlib. The Syrian Free Army (on its basis the National Liberation Front was created), with the support of Turkey and other allies, launched a campaign against those who provoke a war.


– What all this can pour out?


  • The problem with this situation is that battles take place very close to the places where the regime’s army is located. This can lead to undesirable consequences when both parties supporting the world, but who are in a tense relationship, are involved in the conflict. Moreover, in recent months, the regime and the terrorists are fighting. But there is information that after the operation against Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham began, the regime ceased all activities on the territory of Idlib. This seems to be true. This is a very wise move, and it will help get rid of more bloodshed.


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