But it is unlikely that Russia should underestimate the army’s potential for “unflagging”
The Ukrainian military in the Donbass sit without pay, and are determined to rebel. This July 23, the head of the press service of the operational command of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), Daniel Bessonov said.
“As it became known to us, due to the difficult social and economic situation in the country, the servicemen of the Armed Forces serving in the zone of the occupation forces’ operation will be paid money two months after the deadline,” Bezsonov said.
According to him, because of this in the near future in Ukraine, “mass actions of disobedience” are expected. To prevent riots, the command of the APU has already ordered additional patrols. That is, a kind of detachments.
“The most critical situation has developed in the 24th separate mechanized brigade, where servicemen in mass order refuse to obey orders of the command until all the due payments are received,” asserted Bezsonov.
Let’s notice, the Ukrainian army earlier also showed signs of decomposition. The increase in the number of non-combat casualties was noted by the Ukrainian military command in the autumn of last year. In October 2017, the Chief Military Prosecutor Anatoly Matios stated that since 2014 “10 thousand 103 people were killed in the ranks of the Armed Forces and other units that defend the country as a result of irretrievable and sanitary losses, that is, not from military operations.” In May, the country’s Defense Minister, General Stepan Poltorak, told The Observer that the non-combat casualties were 938 people. According to him, these servicemen perished from illnesses, because of road accidents, violations of safety rules and alcohol abuse.
It is necessary to think that the prospect of getting a half-decayed army in the Donbas does not warm up in Kiev. The situation can be corrected not only by timely payments, but also by the intensification of hostilities: when the army is at war, there is no time to think about money allowance.
It is no coincidence that on July 19, Deputy Interior Minister Vadim Troyan ordered the border guards to prepare for the “return” of Donbass under the control of the Ukrainian authorities. To begin with, it is to take control of the borders of the people’s republics. It is these actions that presuppose the so-called “Mechanism of small steps”, which was reported by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov in a blog on the site of the publication “Ukrainian Truth”.
According to experts, the possible aggravation in the Donbass is also connected with conflicts within the Ukrainian ruling elite. Moreover, the aggravation of the hand as Peter Poroshenko, who announced that in 2019 he is going to again run for president of Ukraine, and his opponents. Poroshenko – to raise his rating, and have an excuse to cancel the presidential election if necessary. Opponents – to declare that Poroshenko, as supreme commander in chief, can not cope with the situation in the Donbass.
What in the end will we see: the rebellion of the APU, or another attempt to escalate in the Donbas?
– I am quite skeptical about the information on the decomposition of the APU, – said the State Duma deputy of the third and fourth convocations Viktor Alksnis. “For four years already, many in Russia expect that Ukraine is about to collapse and cease to exist because of the difficult situation inside the country. But, in my opinion, in such calculations, the desired is given as valid.
The fact is that Ukraine does not exist by itself. It is extremely beneficial for certain circles in the West, and these circles will be supported by any means “unflagging” – financially, military-technically. Simply because for a relatively small amount of money they get an opportunity to actively fight against Russia – with its influence and attempts to control the post-Soviet space.
I repeat, not so much money is needed for Ukraine to fulfill these functions.
Therefore, we, I think, it is time to get rid of the myth that the APU is about to collapse. Since 2014, the Ukrainian army has undergone major changes. And today, despite the problems and difficulties, this is a well-mobilized army, which has, among other things, quite high moral qualities.
We must admit that the propaganda propaganda, which is actively conducted in Ukraine, gives results. As it seems to me, now the majority of servicemen of the Ukrainian army are not the military who were in the Crimea in 2014. These people are really convinced that Russia is an “aggressor” and an “occupier”, with whom one must fight to the last drop of blood. Yes, the technical equipment of the Armed Forces is based on Soviet weapons, and the Russian army is ahead. But we need to take into account the mobilization opportunities of Kiev – a very large number of people, which he can, if necessary, put under his gun.
In a word, populist moods in relation to the APU should go
to the past. This is the enemy preparing for war with Russia. And this strategic line – for war with Russia – will be supported by the West. The West, I note, always tried to pull chestnuts from the fire with someone else’s hands. From this point of view, Ukraine is just a godsend for him. That’s why I do not believe that the Ukrainian army is about to withdraw from the fighting positions in the Donbass and will go to Kiev to receive monetary allowance. I think, in practice, the Ukrainian leadership – with the support of Western sponsors – will find an opportunity to solve the problem with payments, and maintain discipline in the Armed Forces. “JV”: – Is it beneficial to the ruling circles in Kyiv to intensify the fighting? “” I think they are not quite on this ready. They, I believe, count on the growth of internal contradictions in the Donbass. Whatever it was, for four years, millions of people living in the People’s Republic of China and the People’s Republic of Germany are in limbo. They have a terrible social situation, unemployment, uncertainty, what will happen next. People in the Donbas – this is an obvious fact – just tired. If we now hold an independent referendum in the people’s republics, I am not sure that we will get the same results as in 2014. It seems to me that many residents of Donbass can say something like this: “For God’s sake, anywhere, even at Ukraine. Just stop bombing and killing us – we just want to live and work peacefully. ” Moreover, they see that Moscow is taking a course to freeze the conflict – to ensure that the current situation in the Donbass lasts for dozens of years.
In Kiev, these sentiments are also well seen and awaited the moment when the Donbass, like an overripe apple, will fall into the hands. In this situation, the APU is used to strengthen such sentiments among the population of Donbass – so to speak, using the whip. It is in this, I am convinced, Kiev’s strategy for the return of Donbass. Because both Poroshenko and his opponents understand perfectly well: this goal can not be achieved by military means. Otherwise, Russia’s intervention is unavoidable, and it’s not ready to compete with it militarily. “JV”: – What should Russia do in this situation? “” In 2014, President Vladimir Putin, I think, did not have the heart to go to the end: in Ukraine, the situation of two Vietnamese or two Koreas. In this case, peace would really come to the territory of Novorossia, and Russia could provide socio-economic assistance to this region. And now, in my opinion, the Kremlin has only two options in the future. Or to hand over to Novorossia, and to take to Russia all the population there – millions of people who can not live under the Bandera people. Or, if necessary, solve the problem of Ukraine by military means: go to Kiev, Odessa and Kharkiv.