Since September 19, the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation and Partnership between Russia and Ukraine has officially ceased to operate. The refusal of the official Kiev to extend this treaty provokes further deterioration of relations between the two countries. This is the opinion of Alexei Chesnakov, director of the Center for Political Context, close to the assistant to the president of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov. According to him, the non-renewal of the agreement “confirms the course toward further deterioration of relations” between Moscow and Kiev.
“This step provokes a lot of options for further development, for example, it approximates the rupture of diplomatic ties,” Chesnakov said.
Meanwhile, the line for the rupture of all possible links is being conducted by the Kiev regime for four and a half years already. It is quite serious now that the prospect of stopping the railway communication between Russia and Ukraine loomed, and even – the introduction of a visa regime, which was previously perceived almost as a bad anecdote.
And after the disruption of economic ties, as we know from world history, war often follows. To what extent can the rejection of Ukraine from Russia come and who will lose more from this?
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“As long as we see that both sides lose the situation of the disagreement between Russia and Ukraine, and the third party, the US, wins,” says Alexander Shatilov, the dean of the Faculty of Sociology and Political Science at the Finance University under the Russian government. – Obviously, with the submission of the West, the Kiev regime has been operating for several years according to the principle – the worse the relations with Russia, the better. The interests of ordinary Ukrainians are not taken into account in this case. The gap is on the widest front – from creating your own version of history to an increasingly reduced transport communications. Everything began with air passenger traffic, now talk about the termination of the railway communication, the introduction of visas, etc.
At the same time, at the state level, tourism in Russia is not approved, work in Russia will soon, and probably, reach communication with relatives in Russia. Poroshenko’s regime consistently led these years as anti-Russian. All this is accompanied by an increasing brainwashing of Ukrainians in order to create anti-Russia.
Clearly, this policy is followed by the “Washington Regional Committee”, because it is rational to explain such a policy rationally. Therefore, it can not be ruled out that the next step will be the breaking of diplomatic relations with Russia. Poroshenko has nothing to lose. On the eve of the new presidential elections, he needs to look like a strong “ungenerous” politician, who is not afraid to spoil relations with Russia. Although in fact he is, of course, is not, as the step can not step without coordinating with the curators from across the ocean.
On the other hand, after all, millions of Ukrainians work in Russia, they come to relatives. Do they like such a policy of breaking ties with Russia? Ukrainian society is now very disoriented and split. Not receiving the proper support from the Russian Federation (whose possibilities are now very limited), many pro-Russian Ukrainians are in this sort of social anabiosis. The Ukrainian media have been conducting an absolutely freeze campaign for years to discredit Russia by all means available to them. Therefore, ordinary Ukrainians, who are not particularly versed in the intricacies of political manipulation, are increasingly exposed to anti-Russian sentiments. At the same time, there are regions where many residents do not need to “re-educate”, Russophobic sentiments have taken root there since Soviet times. I mean Western Ukraine.
In large cities, the liberal-libertarian segment is strong in university centers, and this is felt even in the traditionally pro-Russian Kharkiv. Supporters of these views are pro-Western and anti-Russian for ideological reasons. Someone still believes in the Kiev regime, hopes that it’s worthwhile to wait a little longer, finally breaking with Russia, and then for Ukraine its “Marshall Plan” will be developed.
The Kiev regime with the help of modern information technologies is quite active in the phobias and hopes of Ukrainian society. Unleashing an anti-Russian line for the domestic consumer, Poroshenko will win more than lose. Yes, some of the Ukrainians, accustomed to go to work in Russia, will be dissatisfied, but they can now always say – go to work in Poland or other European countries.
We know an example of a divided Korea, where contacts between the North and the South were practically stopped for a long time. Maybe something similar has been done
about between Russia and Ukraine? “” I think that’s what Washington is trying to achieve. This is seriously hampered by the problem of Donbass. With the loss of the Crimea, in my opinion, “svidomye” Ukrainians (nationalists) internally reconciled (although the public, of course, never admit this). But they just wanted to take the Donbas under control, like a revenge for the loss of the Crimea. And while there are DNR and LC, a complete isolation of Ukraine and Russia is hardly possible. Kiev, of course, will try in every possible way to liquidate these republics: either by influencing the liberal part of the Russian elite, by inciting the Kremlin to the “soft surrender” of Donbass, or by direct power operation, which Ukraine is also gradually preparing all these years, waiting for a convenient moment. And if the Donbass is able to conquer the Kiev regime, then Ukraine will finally turn into such an anti-Russian buffer between Russia and Europe. In this case, the West does not need a prosperous Ukraine. It will be kept in a half-starved and embittered state, so that it is possible to translate arrows to Russia, accusing us of all the troubles of “unreliable”. The West needs an anti-Russian ram that can be used in full if necessary.
Breaking diplomatic relations, if it happens, will mean that our countries are one step away from the war.
The war of Ukraine against Russia is possible only if Kiev will give a go-ahead from Washington. That is, NATO should be given official guarantees of support in the event of war. True, it is possible that Washington will understand that there will be no more prosecution from Ukraine, and finally, to solve some tactical tasks, it will provoke the war and once again expose Russia as an aggressor in the eyes of the Western man in the street. So far from the breakdown of ties between Ukraine and Russia. Of course, Ukraine is losing more, says Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS countries.
Until 2014, the trade turnover between our countries was approximately the same. Today, Russia has lost several percent of its exports from the reduction of trade with Ukraine, and Ukraine has lost almost half of its exports. At the same time, the vaunted “eurointegration” practically did not compensate for these losses. The export of Ukrainian goods to Europe has increased very little. As for the reduction of transport communications – the same story. Citizens of Russia go to the “unreliable” mainly to relatives. And even more reluctantly. Tourism to Ukraine is almost zero, and only Russian pop-stars go to work there from Russia. While millions of Ukrainians are forced to travel to Russia for work. And so in many areas.
Can this situation lead to the fact that eventually Russia and Ukraine will become something like South and North Korea? But in the historical plan it will be a very short moment. By the way, we see that the leaders of these two Koreas today embrace warmly, and citizens, despite decades of propaganda, the education of mutual hatred, do not feed each other pathological malice. On the contrary, the Koreans welcome the restoration of relations with joy and relief. And in the case of Russia and Ukraine, the West can not at all desire to achieve such a degree of isolation for such a long period. Historical conditions are different. In Korea, between North and South, there was an extremely brutal war. In our case, I think, it will not come to this. And the world today is different than half a century ago.
If we continue the analogy between the North and South Korea, the latter was helped by the West to rise economically precisely against DPRK and in general the “communist camp”. And Ukraine can be made a prosperous “Slavic France” against Russia?
The times when the West benefited those who moved to his camp ended in Poland. Later, the countries that joined the EU for “sweet buns” were left with nothing. Poland was the last who was helped for political reasons. Now we see the plight of the economies of Bulgaria, Croatia and other “young European” states. In the Ukraine, the West is helping to “maintain pants” less than Russia in its time, when we sold gas to Kiev at low prices. Those loans that are now receiving “unreliable” immediately go to repay interest on loans already received. Yes, the “Marshall Plan” in Ukraine was waiting, but did not wait for four years and will not wait. Ukraine is needed to be bad and evil country, imprisoned against Russia. Since a well-fed country ceases to be evil and does not try, as a rule, to complicate the lives of its neighbors. But, I repeat, for a long time by historical standards to keep Ukraine in this state they will not succeed. We are doomed to again go on rapprochement with each other, but this will happen, unfortunately, not in a year, and not after two.