After the Syrian Arab Army, along with its allies, including Russian military aircraft, managed to recapture from the Islamic state of Abu Kamal in the south of the Dair al-Zor province, the military activity of government and pro-government forces declined sharply. At first there were plans to go further east along the border with Iraq, but it so happened that the Kurdish formations outstripped Damascus and made it impossible to advance further without preliminary heavy fighting with the most powerful opposition group of Syria. After that there was some calm, however, violated by short-term operations in the central and western regions of the Arab Republic.
Many reasons were for the victorious Syrian army to stop suddenly. First, IGIL has disappeared, therefore, other enemies must come to the fore. With the exception of the weak terrorist groups at that time, only the opposition remained in Assad’s enemy in Syria. About the Kurds who have won a third of the territory of the republic, it’s not even worth talking about. A big war against them is fraught with serious disagreements with the United States, and this is not what Russia wants in the first place, which saved Bashar Assad and restored power to him. In addition to them, there are many other groups, but they are concentrated mainly in Idlib and Dar’a. You can remember Gutu, but the campaign in this suburb of Damascus lasted long enough only because of the high density of the civilian population, otherwise, local groups would be crushed in a couple of days. In general, the real enemies of Damascus were in the south-west and in Idlib.
Kurds will give us their hydrocarbons, throwing Americans, but the winner will be a Russian company.
Asad and Russia for a long time could not proceed to the liberation of these regions. Dar’aa borders are near Israel and Jordan, both of these states are among the most loyal allies of the United States, in addition, they themselves took a certain kind of participation in the Syrian war. Acting at random would be unreasonable – you can seriously harm someone’s interests, and this is fraught with consequences for both Assad and the Kremlin. In any case, Tel Aviv is exactly much. That is why the military operation was stopped, and negotiations began. In the case of the south-west, Moscow managed to achieve great success – Israel is not against the restoration of Assad’s power in the Dar’a and the unoccupied part of Kuneitra. Probably, Jordan and the States are also happy with everyone, since Russian troops and Asadovs are already destroying terrorists and radical opposition in the southwest of terrorists for the third week.
With Idlib, everything turned out to be somewhat more complicated. Previously, here, too, all were run by the Americans, but then their place was taken by the Turks. Ankara actually entered into an alliance with the Syrian free army, and then began to “subjugate” small groups. As a result, Turkey began to actually control the governorate, despite the presence here of the terrorist groups openly hostile to Ankara. It even went so far that the Turkish army set up its outposts along the perimeter of the province. Obviously, by such measures, Erdogan wished to protect the territory from encroachments on the part of Assad. So it could continue for a long time, if only Assad was alone. But he is not all alone himself, he is together with him Moscow, as well as a group of less remarcable friends.
In general, the road to Idlib is open. The Turks suddenly removed the outposts and sharply reduced their presence in the province. What is the reason for this?
The Turkish expert Keram Yildirim does not see anything surprising in this and believes that this is connected with the agreements between Russia and Turkey.
Turkey’s main problem in Syria is Kurdish radical groups, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or the People’s Self-Defense Forces. It will be more difficult to deal with this problem alone than with the help of others. Now the situation is such that Russia with the help of Assad can reduce the influence of the People’s Self-Defense Forces in the whole of northern Syria. Let me remind you that before the attack in Afrin, Erdogan did not object to the city being taken over by Assad. Russia offered the parties this option, but it did not suit the YPG (abbreviation of the People’s Self-Defense Forces from Kurmanji ). This is the only reason why the operation “Olive Branch” (this is the name of the operation of the Turkish army against the Kurds in the north-west of the Syrian province of Aleppo). If in other regions, Russia will manage to reduce the influence of YPG, then the necessity of Turkey’s military presence in Syria will disappear. Idlib was just needed for Turkey to organize effective actions against the People’s Self-Defense Forces. In the future, the maintenance of troops in this province can be considered unprofitable. Therefore, for Turkey, it makes sense to deduce from
If the Russian military and the forces of the regime are expected in the near future, it will be successful. I have no doubt that the Russian and Turkish military agreed on mutually beneficial terms. CHECK ON THEMEADSAD marks a triumphant victoryAssad’s triumphant victory Even now Kurds demand the restoration of Damascus’s powerOther Turkish expert Ender Imrek believes that in this case, there was a pressure from Russia to Turkey. He connects this, including with the warming in US-Turkish relations. “Russia needed the elimination of Turkish outposts in Idlib, because this region always represented a great danger for Damascus for a number of obvious reasons. The Turkish presence in recent years was the only deterrent for Assad and Russia. Now this factor has been overcome, therefore, in the coming months we should expect the seizure of the territory by the regime, but I think that there will be very heavy hostilities – all opposition groups previously withdrawn from Guta, Dar’a, Aleppo are here. agreed to withdraw their forces? “” There are several reasons, but the main one is pressure from the Russian military. Lately, Russia has acted from the position of the strong. Perhaps, there are some agreements, but their usefulness for Turkey is not entirely clear.