Will Russian special forces go to war in Syria because the Assad people are helpless?
Recently, some Arab media have reported that Russia has concentrated serious ground forces in northwest Syria. Most of the sources agree that we are talking about the official special forces of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. However, there are reports of mercenaries. Later, the news was picked up by the well-known Reuters agency, which, with reference to its sources among the Syrian opposition, claims that we are talking about the military, officially in the ranks of the Armed Forces.
All this is explained very simply – the Assad army, with the support of the militias, absolutely nothing can oppose the terrorists and the armed opposition controlling Idlib. Well, you can not argue with that. The offensive of the Syrian Arab Army officially began in late April. Previously, to the north-west, considerable forces were pulled from other areas of the warring country. At first, with varying success, they fought with the Turks and sympathizers for the mountainous areas in the north of the province of Hama, which borders Idlib. Some villages are now under the constant control of government forces, but everything else is constantly changing hands. In other areas, the offensive gave even less results. In fact, the offensive itself failed — Damascus did not have advance, and the separatists still control the same territory that they controlled until April 30, when the operation began. This is despite the fact that in just a few months, Russian aviation inflicted more than 200 strikes on Idlib (Ham asadites were bombed mostly on their own), eliminating hundreds of militants and wounding even more.
Western experts believe that if Russia uses Tel Aviv’s technology, it’s easy to handle.
In general, the affairs of the local braves do not go at all. They are helpless, and, as reported by the media, Damascus appealed to Russia with a request to provide its fighters to organize progress. It is logical. True, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a refutation and criticism of this information.
It is impossible not to believe official information, but on the other hand, it is difficult not to agree that there is no other way to liberate the province from militants. The Syrians themselves fight reluctantly, and they do not really know how. In addition, anti-war sentiments are now popular among them – many of the soldiers have been in service since 2012, some were called even earlier. In Syrian social networks, by the way, such a flash mob is popular – the military and many civilian Syrians remind Assad how long the soldiers have been fighting for him. But the Iranians do not really want to connect to this problem area, which is due to many factors – firstly, they already have very difficult relations with the United States, and participation in idlib operation can only worsen them. There is also an assumption that Tehran is extremely dissatisfied with the Russian-Israeli conspiracy, in connection with which the Kremlin in Syria never stands on the side of Iran. Like, as you do to us, and we to you.
Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov believes that the news is fake. The fact that the major Western and Arab media indicate one of the militant leaders as a source says a lot.
- Now Russia does not use land forces in Syria. It is not necessary. Our special forces were used at a certain stage during full-scale battles. In Idlib, the situation is quite different – it is a sluggish war without claims to escalate into a major conflict. In the case of a full-fledged offensive, Damascus has enough other ways to liberate the province. For example, Iranian special forces have proven themselves very well. It conducted many successful operations, so that here the Persians can prove themselves.
– As far as we know, Iran does not show much desire to communicate with Idlib. It has a lot of reasons for this – to take at least problems in the international arena. At least now there is no data on the participation of the Persians in Idlib conflict.
- Even if so, there is always Hezbollah. It can be viewed as a continuation of Iran in this case.
And Damascus’s own resources are not enough to liberate the governorate?
– It has enough. If you look at the map, we will notice that Idlib has remained the last stronghold of terrorists. That is, Damascus no longer needs to disperse its forces on different sides of the republic – there are no other hot spots, therefore, it is possible to concentrate the main troops in the north-west. This was before the need to create de-escalation zones and other such things. It’s just that Assad didn’t have enough people to fight on all fronts. Now the situation is different. Consequently, there is no point in sending Russian special forces. We must regard this, firstly, as an attempt to embroil Russia and Turkey, and secondly, the militants want to put the Syrian army completely helpless. This is pure propaganda or, if you will, counter-propaganda.