The analytical center of Rand Corporation, which is also called the “shadow CIA” in the USA, “delighted” the Americans. A group of its leading experts – Richard Speyer, George Nakusi, Carrie Lee, Richard Moore concluded: “At present, we do not have effective protection “from hypersonic weapons. It is maneuverable and flies at heights for which our modern defense systems are not designed … Our entire security system is based on the assumption that we are going to intercept ballistic objects.”
Actually, such an apocalyptic assessment for the USA overseas was published earlier. But for the first time it was voiced by Richard Speyer himself, who overseas is considered the “father” of the MTCR (missile technology control regime). And it is worth a lot. It was he who in 1987 prescribed the rules of the MTCR, which today 35 countries officially adhere to. Including – Russia and Ukraine.
In short, Speyer is considered an indisputable military expert in the United States and NATO. Therefore, it makes sense to listen to what he says. In his opinion, the first in the list of emergency threats to American security as completely irresistible are Russia’s promising weapons systems. First of all, the Avangard missile system.
In principle, even the intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from our submarines off the coast of the USA, the Pentagon somehow promises to repulse. To do this, according to the calculations of the Americans, he will have no more than 15 minutes from the start.
Across the ocean, they say that Russian strategic nuclear missile submarines are not as dangerous as our press writes. Like, the current over-the-horizon radars, coupled with underwater detection systems with the support of military satellites, allow more or less reliable control of their movement.
We repeat: in the United States, none of the reputable experts argues that a strike from Russian submarines carries a serious danger. However, US defense officials are reassuring the public with statements such as: “It will be difficult, but we can handle it.”
In short: if something happens, the Yankees are sure that they can drown our few submarine missile carriers. Even with great difficulty.
Perhaps this is a “star-striped” bravado, which has nothing to do with reality. But it is possible that we underestimate the military technology of a potential adversary. Although we are faced with exactly the case when it is better to “overtake” than “not to overtake”.
The truth seems to be somewhere in between. In any case, Washington, pursuing a Russophobic policy, nevertheless, acts extremely carefully. And with the presentation of “Avangard” in Russia, the situation seems to have begun to shift toward “warming” even political relations between Moscow and Washington.
If you look, the United States is no longer pressuring the Russian Federation, as in 2014. Moreover, President Trump, after the introduction of the next “targeted” sanctions, yells on the lawn of the White House that “Putin is a wonderful guy with whom it’s better to get along than not get along.”
The cat smells whose slippers he has made dirty. And, of course, a little afraid.
It should be noted that each time the “warming of the political climate” in the world during the nuclear era almost always coincided with the appearance of new types of deadliest weapons first in the USSR and then in Russia. But then, as history shows, the Yankees find a military-technical answer and traditionally “tighten” the nuts. But the periods of “cooling” coincided with the development of new military technologies in the United States, which significantly reduced our potential for retaliation.
Thus, there is no doubt that in America today the best analytical minds, including Richard Speyer of the “shadow CIA”, are puzzling how to restore the status quo. Or at least gain the false confidence that “it will be difficult, but they can do it.”
As you know, the overseas system of nuclear command, control and communications (NC3) consists of a number of components that were developed during the Cold War. It is based, first of all, on the reserve of time for responding to launches of Soviet ICBMs. Both intercontinental ground-based, and with submarines and strategic aviation.
Moreover, the Pentagon even laid the right to its own mistake, which gives chances for a second interception. If everything that is written in the report of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability is true, then the Americans seriously undermined the potential of the Soviet retaliation strike in the late 80s.
But today, according to Rand Corporation, the United States no longer has the time limit required to intercept the nuclear answer- otvetka. Moreover, the appearance in Moscow, in addition to Avangard, of cruise missiles with a nuclear power plant of the Burevestnik type, allows Russia to deliver a preemptive disarming global strike against the United States.
The fact that it is not in our tradition to start wars is, of course, well known. In principle, they don’t like the situation when someone can wipe their superpower off the face of the Earth.
But emotions, as they say, aside. The NC3 system is imprisoned in the political and military leadership of the United States. It is it, above all, in the person of the President and the Minister of Defense, that gives the command for a nuclear strike. Both the first and the response. However, in the case of the instant destruction by the of the American elite by Avangard, paralysis of power is possible. So, there’s just nobody to press the “big red button”.
According to Rich Moore, a senior engineer at Rand Corporation, about 6 minutes will elapse between the start of the Russian hypersonic minute and the destruction of the White House. About half of this time will be required to identify the attack. This means that the US president will not even have time to get out of bed and put slippers on, as even ruins will not remain from his residence – just a giant funnel. Other key figures in the United States may suffer the same fate.
In addition, Rand Corporation analysts are confident that the Russians will first hit the United States with long-range high-precision and inconspicuous cruise missiles to blind the NC3. Like, while the engineers will understand – why did the pictures on the Pentagon monitors disappear? – Hypersonic killers sent by Putin will do their dirty deed. In this case, it will not even be possible to wake the head of state. Purely theoretically – with proper planning – a war can be lost by America in a matter of minutes. Just because no one will give the command for retaliation.
In short: Russia in the near future is capable of instantly destroying the United States. And yet, it is Russian ideas that will save the United States, they believe overseas. It is also necessary for the Americans to simply take advantage of the mechanism of the Soviet Dead Hand system, which was first described by analyst David Hoffman in his book.
So, in the late 1980s, the Soviet Union really developed and deployed the Perimeter system in response to the Pershing-2 and Tomahawk missiles deployed in Europe. It was the world’s first automated retaliation complex endowed with artificial intelligence. What is curious: even the Western media called the “Dead Hand” the Russian weapon of last resort.
Yes, due to a technological breakthrough in satellite intelligence, the United States then received real military superiority. But Washington clearly knew that even if the Soviet leadership was destroyed, a nuclear response would still occur.
And now the Yankees are deciding: why not make their own “Dead Hand” specifically in response to “Putin’s rockets.” Adam Lawther, director of research at the Louisiana Technical Institute, and Curtis McGiffin, dean of the School of Strategic Power Studies at the US Air Force Institute of Technology, shed light on what the American counterpart of our Perimeter will be. Unlike the Russian, it supposedly will react to the destructive nuclear strike from Moscow even before our ICBMs reach America. Like, why wait until tens of millions of Americans die? The rocket answer – otvetka will fly to the Kremlin as soon as the political and military leadership of the United States dies as a result of the Avangard attack.
According to Lauter and McGiffin, this could save a significant part of the United States population from death, since only Russian ICBMs preparing for launch can be destroyed. True, there may be a temptation for the “third forces” to imitate a missile attack on the White House under the guise of the Russian rockets with the subsequent self-destruction of the Christian world. To the joy, for example, of the fundamentalist Islamists.
Therefore, American modernization will inevitably shift to focusing on the survivability and longevity of the NC3. In the expectation that the United States will nevertheless receive the first nuclear strike, which they do not even foresee. And only then they will answer it.
In short, whatever one may say, without the “Dead Hand” the US feels quite uncomfortable today.
And at this time.
The United States has lost military superiority in the Pacific and the ability to maintain a favorable balance of power in the region, according to a report by experts from the US Research Center at the University of Sydney.
– The combined effect of the ongoing wars in the Middle East, budget savings and insufficient investment in advanced military capabilities, as well as the scale of America’s liberal programs, left the United States poorly prepared for competition in the Indo-Pacific region, – the report said.
According to experts, Chinese countermeasures undermine the ability of the United States to show its power in the region – because of the risk that China will take action faster than the United States can respond.