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Syria began? Deraa

what it was and what is means for Abu-Kemal

Yesterday, operation of the army of the ATS in the province of Deraa began.

In general, the ultimatum delivered by the SAA gave a deadline for reflection on June 14. But there were reports that the term was extended due to continuing negotiations with the elders of some villages. “Evil tongues” linked the transfer of the beginning of the operation in connection with the start of the 2018 World Cup in Russia and its request to wait, although it is more appropriate to relate to the end of Muslim holidays last week. But nevertheless yesterday, fighting began to cut off the “appendix” with a group of settlements north of the town of Busra Al-Hariri. Aviation, tanks and artillery – a complete “gentleman’s” set. Part of the positions together with the air defense base have already been taken. Defend the “green” persistently because they understand that the loss of the “corridor” will be irreversible. And the best that can wait for militants in the Lajat area – “green buses” and not a deblocking blow. In connection with the onset of the offensive and not only with him there are interesting moments about which below.

The concentration of troops was going on for almost a month and a half. The last who arrived were  “tigers” with a large number of artillery, including towed howitzer Msta-B and even MRLA “Hurricane.” The strength is collected fairly and there is a chance without persistent fighting to knock out militants from the same province of Deraa. Since the Jordanian side is unlikely to follow the support of militants from the army of Jordan.

The impact that is being applied now can be quite distracting. Let’s see where the “tigers” will go to the Jordanian border.

It seems that in the south there are no such underground structures as in Yarmuk or East Ghuta. However, our people, preparing tightly the Syrians for a new operation, could envisage this moment as well. And methods of counteraction if such will meet and at the southern border.

But there remains the possibility of intervention by the US and Israel. Granted that Pompeo recently again stressed the agreement between Trump and Putin in Vietnam on November 11, 2017.

“Pompeo stressed the US commitment to the ceasefire arrangements in the southwest [Syria] approved a year ago by [US President Donald] Trump and President [RF President Vladimir] Putin,” Nauert said. According to her information, the US foreign minister also expressed the opinion that “it is critically important for Russia and the Syrian regime to adhere to these agreements and not to allow unilateral actions in this area.”

As well as refer to the US-Jordanian-Russian agreements on the zone of de-escalation in the southern provinces. However, here are three points:

  1. All agreements are based on a certain responsibility. Did the United States have a duty to withdraw its troops from Syria? Was it that strange statement by Trump about the withdrawal of troops ?! And then the United States likes to argue that all are obligated and they “are not required” ?! So maybe they just did not comply and now we are not obliged to observe a dead contract.
  2. It is possible that the agreements contain the obligation of Russia, the USA and Jordan not to ATTACK anyone in the south of Syria. Moreover, they are not the government of Syria.
  3. It is strange that the aggressor country calls on the country-tenant of the military base (we do not help aliens with de jure status) to influence the victim of aggression and not attack militants in the south of the country – let them repair and repair lawlessness. In general, Syria authorized us to sign something on its behalf in respect of its territory?

In general, the US can try to attack the SAA on the Jordanian border. But another question is how much and painful it will be for the SAA. And even more 100% attacks Israel – there can not be any other, but it will be already in Kuneitra, where the Israeli reconnaissance drones fell yesterday.

In connection with the blow to the building that led to the great victims – more than four dozen dead and among them most of the SAA – including. Major-General, two colonels and two major. The rest of the Iraqi militia. Who is the culprit until 100% unknown. The US rejects (it is understandable) – to worsen relations with the Iraqis themselves more.

But what is interesting is what was the real goal of the attack? It is possible that there were two purposes:

  1. It was expected that an important person from Iran would be spending the night there (Soleymani?). High ranks of those killed by the SAA seem to hint at the fact that they could have waited there.
  2. Test the local air defense and destroy part of the forces in the Abu Kemal area (Al Bukemal).

And the second is interesting in connection with the fact that it is entirely possible that preparations are under way for an operation in which the US will receive another Tanf. That is Abu-Kemal over which will be the flags of the Kurds. And thus the ground communication with Iraq and Iran will be cut off. First, unknown aircraft will repeat the focus of Tarda, when “accidentally, erroneously” the strongholds and barracks of the garrison will be destroyed and the “blacks” will first rush into the city and then the Kurds will “liberate” it. Moreover, the “black” simply change their flags and symbols to the Kurdish one. Moreover, in the city there will be military coalition – they are seen in the nomination to Iraqi Al Qaim, which is “two steps” from Abu Kemal.

But another thing is that Iraq’s position has become more intolerant to any cooperation with ISIS (and all the more strikes on Iraqis which are more likely in Abu Kemal) – for nothing that yesterday the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the blow to Abu Kemal (or even closer to Al Qaim). From another interesting report we see that in the south there are raging reconnaissance groups of the SAA and even in the format of “hidden cells”. One of the field commanders left his legs and two guards on a land mine from the reconnaissance. So they will not likely live happily for the last month …

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