The situation in the Middle East is heating up. Tehran and Tel Aviv announce combat readiness. What does this mean for Russia? The fact is that each side considers Russia to be its ally. Will it stop the bloodshed?
For a long time, terrorism was considered the main problem of the Middle East. Osama, from the bin Laden family, was considered the ultimate evil, especially after his al-Qaeda group claimed responsibility for the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States. In addition, the Taliban in Afghanistan from the very beginning of the nineties do not let the Americans feel that they are the masters of the most problematic region of Central Asia. In principle, this was enough for Washington to declare terrorism the greatest threat to the world in general and to the Middle East in particular. And since Washington said it means that everyone should believe in it – this is how the rule was established after the collapse of our Soviet Union. But as you can see, no effort helped crush al-Qaida and the Taliban. Both organizations are still very influential in the region. And this, whatever one may say, is another failure of American international politics. Well, it was necessary to somehow get out. And very successfully in this regard turned up the Islamic state.
Uncle Sam succeded, though not without the help of Russia, which did most of the work of destroying this barbaric group. But the laurels, it seems, will again unjustly go to the States – with them half the world, and all these numerous supporters consider the role of their elder brother to be key. And the Russians were compared with the Assad regime and now they say Russian role in the war against ISIS is controversial.
In general, terrorism is, of course, a big problem of the Middle East, but, by and large, they have begun to consider it solely because of the US position. In fact, terrorism has always been here, and it is unlikely that this problem will be solved from the outside, especially in some unfortunate decades. Now the main threat of the region is not even the destabilizing influence of Washington, as it is often considered to be here, but the geopolitical ambitions of the regimes existing in Iran and Israel.
The word “regime” may seem ugly, but in this case it is appropriate to apply it both to Tel Aviv and Tehran. Israel, despite what is considered advanced democracy, is in fact in a legislative sense very harsh. And here it is not even necessary to recall the segregation of the Palestinians or the multiple other restrictions that apply to them. No, even the Jews are sometimes overly cruel to local authorities. Rallies on any occasion are usually dispersed by force, and all this is accompanied by mass arrests. For example, Tent protest. But Netanyahu, if anyone has forgotten, has been in power for a very long time, and all this really resembles a regime. Netanyahu regime. Yes, Bibi was the prime minister for almost fifteen years, even with one break.
In Iran, about the same thing happens. Those who are dissatisfied with power are beaten and dispersed, people are being persecuted, the Internet, as in Israel, is being closely monitored by the special services and so on. It is true that Rouhani was in power not so long ago as Netanyahu, but it does not matter, there is Ayatollah.
Paradoxically, these countries are very similar. Moreover, each of them is one of the few countries in the region that can claim a leading role. It is noteworthy that for Iran and Israel all the main difficulties in achieving this very leadership status are related to the Sunni part of the Islamic world. Yes, the nations around Israelis and Iranians basically adhere to this teaching. And the Sunnis, as we know, are not particularly located in relation to the Jews and Shiites. At least, hardly anyone will accept the domination of one of them over himself.
This explosive confrontation between these very similar states is the main threat to the Middle East. It should also be understood that the situation is greatly complicated by the presence of nuclear weapons from Israel. Iran is probably also close to its creation, unless, of course, local minds have already reached the goal.
In support of the above, we can cite quite fresh statements by representatives of both parties. At the Munich Conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Jawad Zarif spoke. His speech was not very long, but it still had interesting moments. Speaking about the security of his region, he noted that there are people and states who are “looking for war”. And first on his list is Israel. According to him, the policy of Israel, supported by the United States, significantly increases the risks of war in the Middle East. The situation will only get worse if the international community continues to ignore the Israeli-American threat in the region.
After some time, Netanyahu’s main rival in the upcoming Israeli elections, former head of the IDF General Staff Beni Ganz, took the speech. Of course, he could not answer the attack of Zarif. I started with the fact that they are with Netanyahu, of course, competitors, but as far as Iran is concerned, Ganz with the current prime minister stands “shoulder to shoulder.” Then he continued by telling Zarif a lie, and the current authorities of the Persian state are evil. Well, I ended up against Iran and Netanyahu at the same time. I should also mention that, according to him, Iran is terrorizing the whole world, and something must be done about it.
Mutual attacks, which everyone is fed up with, but, as is usually the case, the further, the worse. All this really brings the war. In Israel, the anti-Iranian hysteria reached its highest point, this has not been here for a long time. Netanyahu’s regime is playing this card more actively than all previous authorities, and sometimes it seems that the main reason for which he is still in power is Iran. For Tehran, there is nothing to say – Israel has not been honored here at all times. Even under the Shah, Israel was recognized only after Turkey did. In general, the relationship was quite acceptable to themselves. Although legally Israel was never recognized. When the revolution was accomplished, Israel was declared the highest evil, and its destruction became one of the goals of the new leaders.
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Russian orientalist and political scientist Oleg Gushchin believes that mutual criticism of the parties is normal. And it is unlikely in this case it threatens with any too serious consequences.
– Netanyahu, he is very patriotic, he cares about the security of Israel. In his opinion, the enemy must be beaten not on his own doorstep, but somewhere on the outskirts of the village. Even better in the field in which he goes to this ancient. And here you can understand him. Israel is not Russia, it cannot afford to retreat to Stalingrad. In addition, the frightened crow and the bush are afraid, and Israel, being surrounded by, to put it mildly, unfriendly-minded countries, is just such a crow. Now what he needs is to get guarantees from Assad or Russia to reduce the Iranian presence in Syria. This worries him most of all, and the Israeli authorities’s militancy will be seriously diminished if the Persians can be persuaded to withdraw the contingent.
On the other hand, it is very difficult to do this, because Iranians are very proud people with definite goals, and it’s not so easy to say “go away!” To them. In addition, as I have said many times, they feed Syria, feed Assad. And this has seriously helped the growth of their influence in the SAR. And about such terrible statements about Israel – there is nothing strange about that. This is a tribute to tradition. For a long time now, Tehran has been confronting traditionalists, faithful to the attitudes of the first ayatollahs, and progressives, who understand that some of these principles hinder the development of Iran in the modern world. The last in power is a lot. Rouhani, for example, is a very competent and sensible politician, it can be seen even by his face. He, being the president, of course, is obliged to make such statements here, but, for certain, he understands that it is not worth bringing matters to war.