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The future of Syria

They want to remove Russia from among the leaders of the fate of Damascus

A regular meeting of the participants of the so-called “Astana format” was held. Its essence lies in the fact that Russia, Iran and Turkey are trying to independently decide the future of Syria. Well, these countries can claim the role of peacekeepers – after all, each of them has a serious impact on the half-ruined Arab Republic. Russia saved Assad and brought back most of the country under his control, but the Iranians came to the aid of the local president even earlier, and already that year they fed and supported not only him, but also millions of Syrians. But Ankara with Assad has nothing to do, except that in the past Erdogan called him his friend and often met with him. They even managed to resolve the issue of Hatay – a Turkish province that once belonged to Syria. But it was a long time ago, now Bashar Asad is an enemy of Turkey, because, according to the frequent allegations of the Turkish elite, the blood of hundreds of thousands of Syrians is on his hands. Erdogan himself recently called his former friend responsible for the death of one and a half million people.

 

However, the lack of fraternal ties with Damascus does not particularly prevent Ankara from expanding its influence in Syria, rather, on the contrary, it is only for her benefit, because without any obligations to Asad, Erdogan can annex entire areas of ATS almost without consequences. What he actually does. A great example is Afrin.

 

In general, Ankara made a bet on the opposition, and it did so even before the beginning of the civil war, when the protest movement had just begun. And since then the Turks have not changed their principles. And at the expense of the opposition, Turkey has managed to gain a foothold in Syria so that only the United States, the Russian Federation and, possibly, Iran can compete with it, although the latter is gradually losing ground.

 

And these three states decide what will happen to Syria. The Astana format was invented and implemented by them. They do with it what they want. Recently, representatives of Ankara, Tehran and Moscow met quite often. Each time, following the talks at press conferences, progress was reported in the Syrian case. It has now been announced that the parties are very close to agreeing on the composition of the Constitutional Committee from the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition. This body will create a new Constitution, and the country will finally move to peace. A bit utopian, but oh well, indeed, really, how long can the Syrians wait for this slaughter to end? Why is not Russia with Turkey and Iran to give rise to a new stage?

 

However, this time the Astinin meeting was different from the previous ones in that the special representative of the UN Secretary General for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, was present at the meeting. Soon he will retire, in any case, he himself said that at the end of November he was finishing up his post, although there is every reason to assume that he will be late until the end of 2018. And he took part in the negotiations. According to him, the Astana meeting failed, was useless, because the negotiators came to nothing. They failed to agree on a list of opposition candidates and government candidates. Consequently, the creation of the Constitutional Committee is still far away.

 

De Mistura “deeply regrets” about this and, according to him, he will give up any work on the creation of the aforementioned committee if this structure cannot be formed by the end of the year. Further, all questions regarding Syria will be addressed exclusively in Geneva, but only if there is success, otherwise, de Mistura washes his hands. In general, the UN representative made a kind of anti-advertising format in Astana. Well, is it really that bad, and they are trying to leave Russia out of work again?

 

Here it is important to understand one thing – Turkey in the composition of the Astana format is, rather, a representative of the West than an independent player. It, of course, defends her interests, but in the framework of the Kazakhstani negotiations her delegation is trying to promote the opinion of Europe and the USA regarding the opposition that they share. So suppose that this format is too narrow, not worth it.

 

Australian expert John Blacksland believes that the talks in Astana have so far not yielded any benefit.

 

Erdogan’s army is going to strike at US military bases. Syria continues to tear apart

  • We can see some success of the participants of this format, but together they do not make key decisions. There is a lot of disagreement between them. Iran and Turkey have a lot of questions about both Assad and the Kurds. Iranians, according to Turkey, use the Kurds for their own purposes and for this reason help them in the fighting

Australian expert John Blacksland believes that the talks in Astana have so far not yielded any benefit.

 

Erdogan’s army is going to strike at US military bases. Syria continues to tear apart

– We can see some success of the participants of this format, but together they do not make key decisions. There is a lot of disagreement between them. Iran and Turkey have a lot of questions about both Assad and the Kurds. The Iranians, according to Turkey, use the Kurds for their own purposes and for this reason they help them in fighting against the Syrian opposition loyal to Erdogan.

 

There are many moments about the differences between Russia and Turkey, but lately Putin and Erdogan have skillfully avoided sharp corners. Using the example of Idlib, they showed what effective interaction is. Everyone in the world was pleased with their decision. They demonstrated how you can call on the internal Syrian forces for peace. Even terrorist groups were forced to join the world, temporarily, but it really was. But the negotiations on Idlib and this key decision was made not in Astana, but in Russia, and Rouhani, as I know, was not there at that moment. He supported this decision, but his participation was not necessary. So these meetings in Astana are so far useless, de Mistura made it clear once again, personally making sure that Iran, Turkey and Russia cannot agree on the future of Syria. Of course, there can not do without the participation of the United States, which led the international Coalition against the Islamic state and achieved great success. Moreover, without the involvement of European countries that not only participated in the liberation of Syria, but also accepted a large number of refugees, it is impossible to do. In general, the UN exists so that everyone can take part in such matters. Therefore, if the fate of entire countries is decided, then it should be done only within the framework of the UN.

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