The head of the Ukrainian Center for Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Candidate of Political Science, Associate Professor at Odessa University Polina Sinovets expressed a very dangerous thought the other day. While the whole world is fearfully digesting in its minds the latest news about the untimely death of the Russian-American Treaty on Medium and Shorter-Range Missiles and reflects how much closer this event pushed humanity to the abyss of the apocalypse, the above wrestler in the skirt for the cloudless sky above the world saw the additional military -strategic chances for their country.
In the opinion of Polina Andreevna, now, after the collapse of the INF Treaty, that occurred, Kiev had the opportunity to bring the cherished dream abruptly – to acquire, finally, a non-nuclear strategic missile. Those are – having previously obtained the consent of the United States, “ignore the agreements within the framework of the association of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), for which we do not produce missiles with a radius of more than 500 km. And, having resurrected the traditions of the national defense industry, to begin the production of missiles, which are essential for ensuring effective containment of Russia. ”
After the thesis of “decisve resistance to the aggressor”, Kiev adopted another – to beat deep into Russia.
I am not sure that all our readers are aware of which international agreements the Ukrainian Center for Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons suggests to Kiev to begin to firmly ignore. Therefore – to start a brief help.
The regime of control over rocket technologies was signed in April 1987 by the G7 countries (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Canada). Subsequently, everyone joined the MTCR. Today, the document is signed by 32 states. Including – Ukraine. The working body of the regime is the “contact point”, which meets in Paris.
The purpose of the MTCR is to control the export of systems and technologies that could contribute to the proliferation of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of delivering nuclear weapons over a long range. On this basis, the spread of technologies designed to create systems with combat units weighing more than 500 kg and a firing radius of at least 300 km is prohibited in the world.
Yes, judging by some data, in recent years, the most important agreement has strongly hindered and continues to interfere with Ukraine. Because in this country, politicians and military do not hide the fact that their missile program is designed to solve the main task: to create a tangible threat to the largest possible territory of Russia. Naturally, as Polina Sinovets made a reservation, exclusively for the “effective containment” of Moscow. In other publications, the desired firing range for this is at least about 1.5 thousand kilometers.
For example, it was in this vein in October 2018 that the well-known in Kiev military expert Valentin Badrak spoke out in the Ukrainian edition of UkrLife. And he literally stated the following: only new long-range Ukrainian missiles, if they can be created in the foreseeable future, are capable of fundamentally “changing the rhetoric of negotiations (between the Russian Federation and Ukraine )”. After all, Kiev, “armed with hundreds or two of these missiles,” will be able to dictate its conditions to Moscow. In addition, thanks to the power of weapons with a radius of destruction of 1.5 thousand km. Ukraine “will be able to defend its position in the field of Euro-Atlantic integration”.
In Kiev, long and dreamily gazing into the geographical maps of our two countries. The results of creative research of such bloodthirsty “geographers” after 2014 are easy to find in many Kiev media. The names of the largest Russian industrial and administrative centers that fall into the hypothetical zone of destruction: Bryansk, Krasnodar, Saratov, Voronezh, Smolensk, Rostov-on-Don, Belgorod, Kursk, Orel, Lipetsk. But the main “prize” for such, of course, is Moscow. Before it, how long ago it was calculated in a neighboring country – a total of 466 kilometers would fly in a straight line. This is if a launcher with the appropriate tactical and technical characteristics is installed in the center of the border village with a very speaking name in this context – Fiery Sumy Oblast.
In general, it is completely obvious: the task of “finishing off to the Kremlin” for Ukrainian designers has been standing for a long time. Some resources are allocated for it. First of all – the head developer, the former flagship of the Soviet defense industry – Yuzhnoye Design Bureau (now the Dnieper, formerly Dnipropetrovsk), which in the USSR specialized in creating the best ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles in the world. And although the engineers of Yuzhny set before them the tasks of constructing tactical and operational-tactical cruise missiles that were unusual for them before, the scientific potential of the enterprise makes it possible to solve them.
This is the opinion, for example, who is well acquainted with the former potential of this formerly famous KB Colonel-General Viktor Esin, the former Chief of the General Staff of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation. Here are the words of the general:
– To create a tactical missile, Kiev has a scientific potential, although a number of technologies have been lost. But they can be restored fairly quickly. Yuzhmash is capable of such development (State Enterprise “Production Association“ Southern Machine-Building Plant named after A.M. Makarov ”- former Soviet, and now the largest Ukrainian enterprise for the production of rocket-space technology). At the same time, it is difficult to say when this rocket will be adopted, since there is not enough information about the state of the Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises.
Agree – this is an honest, anxious and far from appalling assessment. In this case, which long-range operational tactical missile system (OTRK), as Colonel General Yesin admits, can be adopted by Kiev after an unknown time period?
This is not a secret. In recent years, as follows from open sources, Yuzhnoye Design Office has sharply intensified work on the Sapsan OTRK (this project started in 2006). Under the name of a bird of prey of the falcon family, a very interesting complex is concealed, which, as planned, will be able to hit not only land, but also air and sea targets with three different types of missiles.
As far as can be judged, the Sapsan variant for work on ground targets is still the most successful in the Yuzhnoye Design Office. This weapon has a separate name – “Thunder-2”. According to its characteristics, this Ukrainian OTRK, according to Kiev, is an analogue of the Russian Iskander-M complex, which has long been in service. Like the Iskander-M, it is a mobile launcher with two ground-to-ground missiles. According to the creators, at a distance of up to 300 (according to other sources, up to 450) kilometers, the creators are able to strike at the enemy.
Yes, for shooting at the Kremlin itis still not enough. But if the complex is put, for example, on a combat position at Chongar – in the affected area the entire territory of Crimea in Sevastopol inclusive. And this alone makes it hard to think about how to fend off a future threat.