While Russia is going to capture Idlib, the head of the Syrian terrorists announced the seizure of the capital.
The war in Syria is not over. Not only is it still unclear how Assad, the Kurds and the Turks will divide the northern part of the state, so even with the terrorists can not be completely sorted out.
The militants, who formerly ruled everywhere, are now driven to the province of Idlib. Here they have for five years been waging endless wars between each other for territories and meager resources. Nobody touched them – the official forces fought in the east and in the south, and the Kurds and without problem Idlib enough tasks. Ankara seems to have tried to squeeze them, but it did not happen exactly as planned – the Turks volunteered to support only the soldiers of the Syrian free army and several small formations. The rest preferred “independence”. It auknulos – in a number of settlements the Turkish army liquidated their presence in order to build temporary military bases and observation posts. More recently, Ankara has made even greater efforts in trying to legalize the main groups in Idlib. To this end, it is trying to create a certain opposition coalition on the basis of the Syrian free army.
The name of the project is the National Liberation Front. It already includes several tens of thousands of rebels, and it seems that there are no terrorists among them, in any case, the main formations in the Russian Federation are not recognized as such. This gave a small hope for the possibility of organizing negotiations with Damascus with a view to bloodless normalization of the situation in the province. It is premature to talk about how effective the diplomatic settlement plan will be, however, both the opposition and Damascus have so far been exclusively talking about the impending war.
Moscow under pressure from the US and Israel gets rid of Iranian influence.
Rhetoric, of course, is belligerent, but this does not detract from the peacekeeping efforts of foreign participants in the civil war. Turkey is trying, Russia is also trying. However, all this, as it turned out, is not enough. The largest terrorist formation in modern Syria, which was banned in Russia, Khayat Tahrir ash-Sham, declined all proposals submitted to it. This formation was created on the basis of Jebhat an-Nusra , while the ideology remained the same. Turkey invited members of this gang to abandon the struggle and leave for the countries of origin, if they are Syrians, they are allowed to become members of less radical groups. At first, there were hopes for success, but as a result, Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham refused to participate in any negotiations with the Turks, Assad and Russia. According to its representatives, the self-dissolution of a terrorist organization will mean that “Idlib is presented to Russia on a gold platter”. In their opinion, this can not be tolerated.
And one of these days one of the leaders of the terrorist group Abu el-Fateh al-Ferghali said that his gang will never give up, and every day it gets stronger. For this reason Idlib will not fall. Moreover, according to him, in the very near future a campaign will take place to Damascus.
Not particularly terrible threats, but we must not forget that the followers of Jebhath an-Nusra constitute an entire army of about twenty thousand people.
Turkish expert Keram Yildirim believes that in the case of Idlib, there will be many difficulties and Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham is one of the main difficulties.
– Of course, the capture of Damascus is unlikely. Even if now all the forces are nominated militants from Idlib, few people will get to the capital of Syria. And they will definitely end up with all the fighting spirit in order to storm. However, an unexpected offensive can lead to a temporary confusion of the regime, but I think that Russia compensates this shortcoming by its actions. So Damascus is unlikely to attack anyone, there may be some terrorist attacks or sabotage, but not a large-scale offensive.
- And what about Idlib? Are terrorists going to keep him for long?
Djebhat an-Nusra, or similar groups are now a big problem for everyone. Turkey does not want to tolerate them in Idlib, but they can not be withdrawn from there – they have nowhere to retreat, so the only thing they can do right now is to fight to the very end. Turkey did not plan such an operation, therefore, this problem was not solved by military means. Asadu will have to go to extreme measures, because he is trying to regain all the lost land, and Idlib in this sense is a very important region. What awaits him? If he were himself, he would most likely suffer defeat after defeat, as it once was. But with the help of Russia, he will succeed. The tactics of Russia are understandable. Initially, it relies on its intelligence, which locates the key members of enemy units. After that, the leaders should be liquidated. The militants from Idlib, despite Ankara’s calls, are going to fight with Russia and Assad. Of course, this leads to weakening of the enemy, and at that moment A sharp offensive begins with massive support for aviation. But in this case, it will not be possible to avoid large losses among civilians. This is connected with the methods of fighting the terrorist groups such as the Islamic State or Jebhat an-Nusra.