As you know, on July 16, 2018, the first full-fledged bilateral meeting of Russian and US presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will take place in Helsinki, the capital of Finland. The expectation of this meeting has already been exhausted by some of the world politicized public. For two years these two people have been looking for opportunities to meet and hold real negotiations, and for two years this collusion has been hampered by colossal insuperable forces who see grave danger in the meeting.
And here for the first time the action of these forces was overcome. The meeting will take place. The world is in colossal strains froze and buzzed like an agitated hive. The fact is that with all the greatness and importance of the economic power of China’s partner China, the course of world history so far, like all the last eighty years, is determined by the relations between Russia and the United States. Despite the difference in economic potential. The weight of Russia is attached to its geographical position and the army. These two components weigh much more than the level of the economy – for all its undoubted importance. But the world knows many economic giants, which at the same time remain political dwarfs. Just because of its geography and the state of the army.
Before the meeting of Putin and Trump, the world is full of forecasts, almost all experts expressed their opinion. In general, the forecasts can be reduced to three groups.
The first group. The talks between Putin and Trump will not bring any important changes, because the positions of the parties are deeply rooted in geopolitical positional contradictions and any negotiations can only be an attempt by each side to squeeze out an opponent, which is unrealistic. In a word, everything is according to Kipling: the West is the West, the East is the East, and no matter how many of them move towards each other, they will not come down from their place. Therefore, one should not expect any breakthroughs on the main lines of confrontation, such as Iran, Syria, Ukraine and Europe.
No one will not concede, and there is nothing to exchange sides for now.
This position is shared by such analysts as Nikolai Starikov, Yakov Kedmi, Maxim Shevchenko and many other experts.
The second group. The talks between Putin and Trump will become a conspiratorial attempt to agree on helping each other against their main enemy – the liberal global community. Here all disputes will be pushed aside for a while, and all discussions of the main topics will be distracting, and resolutions on them will be formal. The real agenda at the meeting of Putin and Trump will be precisely certain separate talks on taming the global “deep state” and setting up channels for further non-public interaction.
This interpretation is the most comprehensive and deep, it does not offer breakthroughs on the main topical areas, as the first group of experts believes, but, unlike them, points to a hidden, real occasion for the meeting of the presidents of the two superpowers, as well as to a true negotiating agenda.
This agreement between the presidents envisages long cooperation in several stages, when Trump first helps Putin to eliminate in Russia a liberal clan that is closed to the Clintons and global forces and then Russia, the United States and China form a Triple Alliance on the management of the world, where new spheres of influence will be defined. And Putin will have the opportunity to support Trump’s efforts along the way. Among the experts, Yuri Baranchik and Mikhail Khazin have most deeply “dug” this issue.
The third group. The agenda of the talks has already been drawn up, the parties agreed on a joint statement following the meeting, where no imprompt is provided and all moves are painted.
These are the moves: 1. At the request of the globalist wing of the US Congress, which gave consent to Trump’s meeting with Putin, Trump will seek from Moscow written consent not to interfere in the American elections. Moscow, of course, refuses, since this would be an indirect recognition of the intervention in 2016. At the same time, Moscow will express itself in the spirit that it never did and does not intend to do so. This statement will be accepted by both sides, which Trump will show at home as an important document that he obtained on the eve of the November midterm elections to Congress.
Ukraine will become the most formal object for discussion. The parties will be limited to declaring their commitment to the Minsk agreements. The real solution of the issue will be rendered beyond the framework of the meeting and handed over to assistants who will have to prepare a new step-by-step “roadmap” for the solution of the Ukrainian question on the basis of the already prepared and agreed approaches and the agreed final position of this country on a new political map of the world. By the way, the fact that the solution of the Ukrainian issue between Moscow and Washington already exists, says the outcome of LDPR back to Russia a number of some famous people. Syria will be a fully-fledged topic for discussion. And the point is not that Assad is fully consolidated and more than ever close to victory, and the US is worried about Israel and wants to push Iran away from the Israeli border with the help of Russia. This will be actively discussed. But the main thing that excites Trump is the fate of the oil fields in Deir ez-Zor. The fact is that the US once invested very large capitals there, and now Assad took away these trades from them. And the need to prevent the expropriation of US assets in Syria is most worried about Trump. This is what he will tell Putin and thereby justify his position, why he can not simply withdraw from Syria without solving this issue. Trump will ask for guarantees from Putin, realizing that the US can solve this issue militarily, but this entails unwanted US political costs. And it costs a lot of money, and Trump does not need any in-kind spending outside the US.
Sanctions will be the shortest reason for discussion. First of all, because the decision was made by a congress led by the predominantly neoconservatives, and as long as Trump was not recruited in the right number of people, the discussion of this topic is completely empty.
Any statement of these two politicians on the topic of their meeting can not be adequately deciphered without taking this context into account. Summarizing and uniting all three groups of forecasts, we can say the following: 1. In the United States, there is a counter-revolution, a revenge, which the forces of industrial capital are trying to take from the capital forces of the financial. The defeat of industrialists from financiers in the United States took shape after the Second World War, when the Bretton Woods system arose. The basis for the victory of financiers over industrialists was laid not so much by the decision of 1913 on the establishment of the US Federal Reserve System – after which the US fell into the Great Depression, and the arrival of Nazi capitals into the American economy under the Cold War program with the USSR, Harry Truman. The American industrial capital eventually turned out to be enslaved through the issue-credit expansion of financial capital.
If we seek the interests of the policy of Trump and determine its criteria, then it is the nature of the revenge of the industrialists against the financiers and will be decisive for understanding. It is this revenge that defines the scope of permissible maneuvers for Trump, as well as the acceptable alternatives. It is these alternatives that determine the list of options acceptable to Trump. This “Golden Square” of negotiations will also be the basis for building communications, and for determining the form of relations, and for what obligations the high contracting parties will assume. And quite in accordance with the assumption of Yuri Baranchika, it is these, shadow aspects of the negotiations that will become the basis for commitments, guarantees for their implementation, without which there is no negotiation agreement. After all, if the negotiations did not end with a list of obligations of the parties, they were a waste of time. Therefore, the main success of Vladimir’s talks Putin and Donald Trump should be judged not on officially replicated information “for the broad masses of the people”, but only on the information obtained by painstaking analysis between the lines of official communications and without fail taking into account all the above circumstances. What else can we do and add?
The talks between Putin and Trump fall on July 16. If we assume that Putin did not help Trump at the elections, then Trump does not owe Putin anything. And if you think that helped? Then it turns out that it is Trump who must settle for the existing debts. Nobody can determine exactly where the joke ends and the truth begins. The truth becomes what you believe, that it is true. Or, as Napoleon said, “the world is governed by the imagination.” In any case, from all points of view, the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will be very difficult. Success in it will be things completely unobvious at first glance. And then, what fate will be expected after that for Europe, Ukraine, Syria and Iran, is, however, a secondary matter. The main thing is to build another system of communications. This will be the first full-fledged meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. We wish them successful negotiations.