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Ukraine new blitzkrieg to seize the Donbass. Will Russia stand aside?

In the Donetsk Republic they are ready for any actions of Kiev. This was stated by the deputy of the People’s Council of the self-proclaimed republic Vladislav Berdichevsky. According to him, any attempt to attack the Donbass will end in “total pacification” of the Armed forces of Ukraine.

 

– In the DPR, we are aware of all these suicidal floodlights for Kiev, we know what to expect, – he said. In his opinion, Kiev again showed a lack of contractability and peacefulness.

 

– We have long known these plans for the cleansing and genocide of Donbass, – Berdichevsky emphasized. He also compared Ukraine with the Islamic State terrorist group and noted that the actions of the militants are regarded by the world community as radicalism and terrorism.

 

This statement was a response to the words of the Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine Sergey Krivonos, who had earlier said in an interview that the troops should be ready to forcefully regain control of the Donbass.

 

Answering a clarifying question, is it possible to implement the Croatian scenario (the forceful return of territories beyond the control of Kiev), he confirmed: “The armed forces should be ready for this.” How much this will be possible depends on the support from the foreign partners of Ukraine.

 

– Because if there were no support from Croatia by NATO countries, then there would be no Croatian scenario, – Krivonos explained.

 

The Ukrainian military also spoke about the complex of measures that must be taken before making such a decision. Among them are increased pressure on Russia, the development of a territorial defense system in Ukraine, as well as the strengthening of the army.

 

It is difficult to say how prepared the Ukrainian army is for a real full-scale war. Definitely better than spring-summer 2014. However, the militia of the republics has long been not a militia, but full-fledged armies. Do not write off the support of Russia.

 

At the same time, in the absence of large-scale battles, Kiev continues to terrorize the Donbass, shelling peaceful cities and carrying out individual terror against individual commanders.

 

On January 20, in Donetsk, the deputy commander of the special forces regiment of the republic’s Ministry of Internal Affairs Aleksey Krivulya was shot in the back.

 

According to the Ukrainian political scientist, coordinator of the Borotba association, banned in Ukraine, Yevgeny Golyshkin, statements about the readiness of the Armed Forces to forcefully seize Donbass from the military leadership of the country are not unexpected.

 

– This is due to the fact that Ukraine has long lost its independence and subjectivity and is forced to fulfill other people’s whims for the sake of “overseas” geopolitical interests. Such statements by the Ukrainian Armed Forces commanders about their readiness for the “Croatian scenario” are typical militaristic populism aimed at the nationalist electorate, in the light of accelerating unpopular reforms and regular inside government scandals. Of course, if Ukraine, in the light of the execution of commands “from behind the hill”, decides on a “small victorious war”, it will wash itself with the blood of its own soldiers. Which in turn will cause new protests against the power of the “Zelensky team” inside the very Maidan “biosphere”.

 

– Krivonos’s statement also includes self-promotion, – said Eduard Popov, director of the Center for Public and Information Cooperation “Europe”.

 

– As the new deputy head of the Security Council, he is interested in the fact that in the eyes of the public his name appears in a patriotic context. But with greater probability it can be considered – this is a message from Zelensky, who is the chef for Krivonos. This message is this: the patriots of Ukraine can sleep peacefully. We outplayed Putin in the gas field, concluding a gas contract that was unfavorable for the Russians, and forced us to pay a three billionth fine. And now we beat Muscovites not only with the ruble, but are ready to beat them with military weapons. If (more precisely, when) Ukraine considers it necessary, it will withdraw from the Minsk agreements, having found the necessary justification for this, and will solve the Donbass problem overnight. Moscow, according to Kiev, gives slack. Hence the desire to increase pressure on Moscow and the hope or even confidence that Russia will succumb to blackmail by Ukrainians. I believe that Krivonos acts as a member of the Zelensky team.

 

– How ready is Ukraine for a new war, when compared with 2014?

 

– Both sides prepared and are preparing for military operations. They are inevitable. The question is not whether they will begin – the question is when they will occur. The disassembled army, which were the APU in 2014, is no longer there. The NATO instructors helped, the Polish and Canadian commandos fighting on the side of the Ukrainians, military-technical assistance from the United States. And the Ukrainians themselves are learning to fight.

 

On the other side, in the spring of 2015, the dismantling of essentially guerrilla militia units began, instead of which a traditional army structure arose. Therefore, the coming war will not be a war of qualities, but of quantities. The DNR-LNR armies are better motivated, but the APU significantly exceeds the Donbass corps in quantitative terms. And in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there are very professional (and sometimes even highly professional) units and units. I believe that the level of losses in the ranks of the Armed Forces will be much higher than during the battles of May 2014 – February 2015.

 

– Krivonos speaks of support from the West, recalling the “Croatian scenario”. Will there be such support? After all, if Ukraine breaks the Minsk agreements, it will be a blow to the reputation of the West.

 

– This question is answered differently in the republics of Donbass. In my opinion, there will undoubtedly be support from the West. Not for fun, the United States invested so much in preparing a coup d’etat in Ukraine to simply refuse to support it. Another thing is how this help will be presented. Most likely it will be implemented informally, only on a large scale. Something like the events in South Ossetia in August 2008. But it is also possible (this depends on the specific situation that will prevail at that time) that NATO troops enter into an open conflict. On the ground, APU will operate, in the air (bomber aircraft, EW forces, reconnaissance, etc.) – NATO force will do the job. And, of course, the commandos of NATO countries. The nature of Western participation will depend mainly on Russia’s position.

 

– Another condition, according to Krivonos, should be the weakening of Russia so that it cannot help Donbass. Is such a weakening possible?

 

– In Kiev, they believe that such a weakening is possible. A message from President Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly showed that Russia is concentrating on domestic issues, which are more than enough. While the new government will clean out the Augean stables after its predecessors from the cabinet of Dmitry Medvedev, Russia will not particularly be in the Donbass. Who knows if the West will take this chance in the Donbass?

 

– By the way, if Kiev attacks the Donbass, will Russia send troops? Or can help be implemented differently?

 

– A week ago, before the dismissal of Dmitry Medvedev and the declared political reform, I would definitely answer: Russia will send troops. Now there is no such certainty. Perhaps the emphasis will be shifted to diplomatic measures in order to show an open violation by Ukraine of the Minsk agreements, which bear the signatures of the heads of diplomacy of European countries, from which political conclusions will follow. But even the non-participation of Russia as a state in repulsing Ukrainian aggression cannot prevent the influx of a large number of volunteers into the Donbass. Including those who have gone through the crucible of the initial stage of the war and have combat experience.

 

Armor-piercing feathered sub-caliber shells: how is this done with us and with them.

– Kiev continues the terror against civilians, shelling them. What is this strategy aimed at? Will she bring a result?

 

– People are not sorry for the authorities of Ukraine, although they insist that the same Ukrainians are inhabited by the same Ukrainians as they themselves. But at the same time, the Ukrainian authorities ruthlessly exterminate “their own”. Ukrainians need Donbass as a territory without a population.

 

– In Donetsk, their DRGs are still operating successfully, killing militia commanders. Will it be possible to put an end to this?

 

I have repeatedly said that in the Donbass there are leaky borders and a very widespread Ukrainian intelligence network. In the spring of 2015, the mass return home of fugitive Ukrainian officials, Party of Regions functionaries, customs officers and security officials began. These people fill vacant posts in the police, customs, in party organizations, in the tax service, etc. The same “holey” border is in the republics of Donbass and on the line of military contact. There are purely objective reasons: a “leaky” border, a common history, mutual kinship and friendly ties, which in every way facilitate the penetration of Ukrainian terrorists and saboteurs into the territory of the republics.

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