Now, for a complete victory in Syria, Russia needs very little.
The other day, many Arab and Israeli media spread information about the emerging progress in the Syrian issue. As if at the end of June, high-ranking representatives of the United States, Israel and Russia will gather in Jerusalem to discuss the possibility of recognizing Bashar al-Assad. And although Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the possibility of a deal between the US, Israel and the Russian Federation on Syria, urging not to trust the fake news that appears in different media, the news continues to be actively discussed.
Recall that immediately after the start of the riots in Syria, Washington fully supported the opposition and urged the current president to resign. At this all diplomacy with Damascus is over. The United States spoke exclusively in the language of threats and, in the end, turned to military action, although the latter was explained not by the fact that Asad crossed all the borders, but by the need to resist the Islamic state. However, this allowed the Americans to permanently gain a foothold in the SAR. Moreover, the Yankees even managed to give birth to a puppet state called Rozhava (funny that in Russian that means «to give birth»), which occupies the northern and eastern parts of the republic. In this light, the US attempts to recognize Assad and make contact with him look very unusual – at least, hardly anyone could have expected such a turn of events.
But the Syrian-Israeli relations are in even deeper crisis. During the years of Syrian civil conflict, Tel Aviv delivered hundreds of blows to the territory of a neighboring state. Usually the targets were Iranians, but very often instead of them or together with them fighters of the Syrian Arab army and friendly formations died. The last blow was struck at all on Sunday morning – there were dead and wounded. Netanyahu himself gave the appropriate order, at least, he said so himself. And then suddenly it turns out that now Assad is quite a handshake and you can do business with him.
In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, all of this would probably be regarded as a happy event, but there are certain nuances. The media write that on the basis of certain documents of the United States, a deal with the Russian Federation is possible only if Moscow agrees to influence Iran. The old song, Tel Aviv and Co., has long been trying to force the Kremlin to squeeze the Persians by any means, but either the first one is not very convincing, or the second ones are too uncompromising. In general, none of the methods proved to be sufficiently effective. Now here we come to Assad.
Russian political scientist and orientalist Oleg Gushchin believes the deal is very tempting, but advises not to rush to make decisions, because the recognition of Assad by the United States and Israel can be too expensive for Moscow.
– I would say so – your boots are good, but something is too expensive. First, for Russia, Iran is much more important than Syria itself. Losing it for the sake of Assad is not very reasonable. Secondly, purely geographically, it turned out that Iran is very important for Russia. Third, Iran has been and always will be – there will be no France, but Iran will stand. He has a great story. Fourthly, it’s not so easy to say who is more valuable to us – Israel or Iran. Therefore, it is always bad to be friends with everyone, as it often happens with us. The Iranians themselves are very proud people, so because of some particular whims or even particularly important interests of the Russian Federation, they will not sacrifice their goals. One could say that it’s good to just go and reconcile Tehran with Washington — no mutual recriminations and no unnecessary conflicts, but there are already high risks that Russia will no longer be needed for the Persians. Now we are for them – this is a window to the world. Because they are so actively cling to Putin. But having Americans as friends, the Persians are unlikely to be still close to us. For example, under Shah, Tehran was oriented specifically to America. With the USSR, it did not have much love.
– Are there any benefits from the potential recognition of Assad by the United States and Israel?
- It is likely to bring the day closer when the Syrian Republic will be restored. With the separatists or with the Kurds, full-fledged negotiations will begin with the mediation of foreign observers and specialists. And here everyone will be on the side of Damascus, not the Kurds or anyone else. But I will note that all technical issues must be addressed to Bashar Asad himself.