US President Donald Trump made an extremely tough statement addressed to Tehran. “If Iran wants to fight, then it will the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again, ”the head of the White House wrote on Twitter. Thus, he confirmed that Washington considers all scenarios, including the military.
In this situation, the King of Saudi Arabia called for an emergency summit of Arab leaders to be held in Mecca on May 30. Adele Al-Jubeir, the State Minister for Foreign Affairs of this Arab country, warned: “If the other side chooses war, the kingdom will respond with all its strength and determination.”
Around Iran, in its eyes it is not just growing tensions. The case may well go as far as a missile strike by the United States and its allies in the Middle East on the Islamic Republic. Just because, from the point of view of Washington, the situation has gone too far.
According to Iranian media, Tehran has quadrupled the production of low-enriched uranium. This “may mean that Iran is likely to go beyond the limits of uranium reserves established by the nuclear agreement,” the agency said.
According to the representative of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Behruz Kamalvandi, this decision does not mean that Tehran will increase the number of centrifuges used, which is limited by the agreement on the Iranian atom. However, according to him, within a few weeks Iran will reach the maximum allowable, according to the terms of the agreement, the amount of reserves of low-enriched uranium – 300 kg.
If desired, this step can be interpreted as the desire of Iran to quickly acquire its own nuclear arsenal. And to become, thus, invulnerable to the USA – following the example of North Korea.
America seems to understand the situation in this way. And, perhaps, it is already preparing a casus belli.
According to the Military Review, the sabotage of May 12, 2019 against four oil tankers passing near the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates in the emirate of Fujairah under the flags of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Norway could have been a provocation. Behind which stands the Pentagon, Tel Aviv and the defense departments of the countries participating in the “Arabian coalition.”
The publication indicates that at the time of the seven explosions sounded on tankers, tactical aircraft of the OVVS of NATO were recorded in the UAE airspace. This refutes the Western media version of the “sabotage attack” on tankers by the IRGC units.
Finally, this fact is remarkable. On May 21, it became known that the large Russian cargo ship Sparta II had arrived in Iran. There is evidence that it delivered an unknown military cargo.
Recall, “Sparta II” is a dry cargo ship from the so-called “Syrian express”, which has been delivering weapons and food from Novorossiysk and Sevastopol to Syria for several years already. According to analysts, this time we can talk about emergency deliveries of air defense systems (or spare parts to them) to the Iranians from the Russian Federation and anti-ship cruise missiles.
In a word, such a scenario becomes real. The US will rocket Iran. Tehran will respond with an instant attack on Israeli territory. What will Russia do in this situation? After all, Israeli and Iranian missiles will fly, and – in both directions, literally over the heads of our soldiers – over the Hmeimim airbase?
And what will Russia do if Tehran tries to attack the border of Israel in the Golan by the forces of its contingent that has long been fighting in Syria? Where are the Russian military police, at the request of the UN, patrolling the Bravo line?
In general, will the US-Iran military conflict reach? And is it at hand in Russia?
- The situation around Iran is acute, but very similar to the next Trump bluff, – says Mikhail Alexandrov, a leading expert at the Center for Military-Political Research at MGIMO.
– Let me remind you that Trump was bluffing when the USA got aggravated with North Korea. And partially bluffing when the United States, together with Britain and France, attacked Syria in April 2018. That blow was much weaker than originally declared.
Here and now a bluff is possible. Another thing – the situation with a military bluff can develop so that it will drive itself into a certain corridor. In a certain logic of action, in which it is already impossible to stop.
If Iran does not make concessions, if it continues to enrich uranium and withdraws from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (IFAP), signed in the summer of 2015 in Vienna, the United States will not have any leverage other than a military strike. Either the Americans themselves need to negotiate with Iran. And Tehran has already announced that it does not intend to go to any additional negotiations with the United States.
The result is that the United States has already driven itself into a corner. Put in a situation from which there is no good way out. Either they return to the previous deal with Iran. Or they need to go on further forcing tension. And at a certain stage this forcing can break into a military conflict.
– What are the possible scenarios of this conflict?
– It is enough for the United States to hit the Iranian territory once – Iran will immediately respond. Americans can not stop. And will strike a new blow. Tehran will respond again.
If a series of attacks followed Iran, Tehran would definitely strike back at US bases and at Israel. Hence, there will be an escalation also with Israel. Tel Aviv will respond. And Tehran will respond. Including, from the territory of Syria.
The main thing is that it will not solve anything in terms of Iran’s participation in the nuclear program. Without a large-scale war with Tehran, the Americans will not resolve the issue. And if they retreat without deciding anything, it will look like a serious defeat for Washington.
– What should be the position of Russia in this situation?
– We must, I believe, help Iran as much as possible, military-technical and political. To prevent Americans from achieving their goals. Thus, Moscow can help bring down the American empire.
It is necessary to understand: there comes the critical moment. If the Americans get into a fight with Iran and lose, then everything will fall out for the US. This will be the end of America in its current form.
Will the American ships be able to get into the Black Sea through the new Turkish channel?
This is not even a war with Vietnam. Then the United States could still get out of it – of course, shabby and plucked – but to maintain the position of the leader of the Western world. Because the global balance of power was different.
But now the West is not the dominant force. Now there is another balance of power in the world. China, India, Southeast Asia are all able to live without the United States. And Latin America, too.
So in case of a loss, the hegemon will collapse. Akella from Jungle book, so to speak, missed. And all the countries of the world will start sending Americans away.
It turns out that the situation with Iran is very risky for the United States. This may lead to the fact that if the Americans do get into a conflict with Iran, a serious escalation will begin. Up to the use in the Middle East of very large contingents of the US Ground Forces.
At the same time, the deeper the Americans will climb, the less they have a chance to get out of the situation victoriously. Because conquering Iran physically! – is what they can’t. Only – to bomb. Including – with the help of Israel.
Although what will remain of Israel after the Iranian missiles fall on Tel Aviv is hard for me to say.
– What gives such a scenario to the Kremlin?
– Confrontation with Iran will be exhausting for the United States. For us, this opens up the possibility to solve the Ukrainian question. For example, by military means. If the Russian leadership, of course, will solve it.
In any case, the situation is favorable for us. It is no coincidence that Putin said that Russia is not a fire brigade to intervene in every situation in which it cannot influence anything. In fact, Putin washes his hands. And gives Americans the opportunity to make a fatal mistake.
As Napoleon aptly said, “when an enemy makes a mistake, he should not be disturbed – it is impolite.”