The United States has been trying to solve the problem of Afghanistan for decades. True, for some reason all their attempts to reduce exclusively to the use of military force. And besides it’s hard to say what Washington wants there.
During the war years in this Asian state, so much has changed that the original US goals in Afghanistan have become irrelevant. Perhaps, realizing this, the American authorities have repeatedly changed the main slogans of this war. That they fought with unruly terrorist groups. They fought the cultivation and production of drugs. They supported some weak formations that claimed power in Kabul. And each such undertaking invariably failed.
The Taliban in Afghanistan have long appeared, and already it can wage an effective struggle against all its enemies – both with internal and with the interventionists. Americans, in spite of all the efforts, have not managed to do so, even for a little bit this influence of this movement.
The reason for this was the Syrian bombardment of civilian objects.
With drugs, things are no better. Since 2001, when the US launched its campaign against the Taliban, the production of Afghan opium sharply increased. One of the main beneficiaries was the Taliban. To date, the situation has not straightened up – extremists continue to receive millions of dollars thanks to crops and poppy processing.
If we talk about the viability of the puppet regimes established by the Americans, then hardly anyone can think, even if three or four people are benefited by Washington. You can, of course, mention Hamid Karzai, but he does not particularly owe the Americans their ascent to the imperious summit. He was more helped by ethnicity and pedigree.
In general, the US in Afghanistan has not won anything – neither economically, nor politically. At the same time, the Taliban remained an active domestic force in the country, and they continue to remain.
Probably, all this is perfectly understood in Washington, since even with the past president they decided on partial withdrawal of their contingent. True, this has slightly affected the costs. The new head of the White House is more prudent. Trump has already said several times that Americans should return home from Afghanistan, but so far this has not come to pass. Well, he still has time. And, apparently, Trump wants to use it with profit.
So, the other day the influential American publication “National Interest” published material on the Afghan theme. According to this media, the US leadership is actively seeking full-fledged negotiations with the Taliban. This is due to Washington’s desire to end its participation in an endless war.
Russian orientalist Oleg Guschin is inclined to believe that the probability of American forces leaving not only from Afghanistan, but also from Syria is high.
– For several years all this has been said (on the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan). Even with Obama, who even dared to reduce the presence, there were such rumors. But at Trampe the probability of a final withdrawal increased significantly.
The current president of the United States seems to understand the meaninglessness of participation (in the war – the author). If Trump had made his own decisions, then probably he would have already solved this question. However, in America, the president does not have such power.
I would say that at the moment there is a 25% probability of withdrawing US military from Afghanistan. This is actually quite a lot, considering that in the US they are used to receiving something in exchange, if money was spent. Be at least a cent, even a hundred billion dollars.
But on the other hand, supporters of common sense have long understood that the waste of resources on Afghanistan does not guarantee any return at all. The Taliban, I think, are always ready for such negotiations. Now their main goal is to get rid of foreign presence in their country. They, of course, are terrorists, but they are able to reach an agreement. In addition, as in the case of success, from 1996 to 2001). Their power, however politically incorrect it may be, is better than complete anarchy.
It is for this reason that the US wants to negotiate with the Taliban. Those control almost half the country, you can not ignore this fact. Without negotiations with the Taliban, the Americans can not afford, otherwise all their supporters in Afghanistan will be instantly exterminated. And there are enough other problems.
- Can the US withdrawal from Afghanistan mark the beginning of the collapse of the American Middle East policy?
– No, there is no collapse here. Russia, I would say, has more reason to be in those parts. Still, we say “Nearest East”, and they say the Middle East (Center East.). But in the Middle East, Americans outstripped Russia. For example, in Iraq, we still do not have any serious opportunity to compete with them. Here in Syria we are much more successful.
– By the way, about Syria. Since the US is leaving Afghanistan, is it likely that something like this will happen in Syria?
– Of course. I would even say that in the case of Syria, such a probability is higher. We have already divided Syria along the Euphrates River with the Americans. They are on the left, we are on the right. On this division everything could stop, if not for Erdogan. He is a resolute person, and the Kurdish issue is going to close quite quickly. Shtat hardly in this conflict will choose the Kurds. Most likely, Washington will have to give them up. One way or another, Russia will be connected to this issue. And I predict that then for a while the Americans will finally take up only Iraq, leaving Syria. By the way, they are now building a military base on the Syrian-Iraqi border. All this outrages. But for some reason it seems to me that this is connected more with the intentions to gain a foothold in Iraq. With Iraq, there are fewer problems: they do not have to compete with the Russian federation or Turkey. So in Syria, everything can develop in our favor.