The President of the United States on his Twitter page reported that the head of Turkey, Recep Erdogan, promised him. He ll bring the ISIS defeat in Syria to the end after the withdrawal of American troops from the country.
– Turkish President Erdogan told me very convincingly that he would destroy everything that was left of ISIS in Syria … and he is the man who can do it, plus Turkey right next door. Our troops are returning home! – he wrote.
As is known, at this time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, is outrageous and writes various unpleasant things to the Turkish president, who in turn accuses Tel Aviv of genocide. Nevertheless, it seems that Trump will not change his policy. This is what a famous American blogger writes about this.
Last Friday, President Trump had another long telephone conversation with Turkish President Erdogan. After that, he rejected the insistent recommendations of all his advisers and decided to withdraw American troops from Syria and stop striking the territory of this country from the air.
Why does Trump again lead the whole world by the nose, announcing the withdrawal of troops?
This was the first time that Trump took a decisive stance against the Borg – a stable neoconservative and interventionist establishment within his own administration, the Department of Defense and Congress – which usually dictate what the US foreign policy will be.
It was this decision and the fact that Trump insisted on him finally turned him into a president.
Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, his former defense minister, Mad Dog Mattis, and Secretary of State Pompeo – all three of them – opposed the decision. The “experts” working on Syria — insane State Department Special Representative for Syria cooperation James Jeffrey and President’s Special Representative on the fight against the Islamic State terrorist group (ISIS) Brett McGurk were taken aback. They worked hard to establish a permanent US presence in the puppet Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.
And although all these people initially tried to convince Trump to change his mind, by now their resistance has ceased. Mattis, Pompeo and Bolton held a meeting on Monday, December 17, when it was announced that Trump made a formal decision about the withdrawal of American troops from Syria. Many high-ranking US officials from the Department of Defense, the State Department and the National Security Council opposed the sharp withdrawal of American troops. But later it was reported that by the end of the day on Tuesday, December 18, they had stopped trying to influence Trump. On Tuesday, these officials began to notify the Allies of the decision taken by Trump. One of the experts in the region who advises the US administration gave a leak about this.
Back in January of this year, we explained why the neoconservatives project to create a proxy state in northeastern Syria was doomed to failure from the very beginning. This project was supposedly approved by the then State Secretary Tillerson. However, the Kurdish territories partially coincide with Turkey’s plan to establish a “security zone” in Syrian territory, along the border between the two countries.
It is the United States-supported plans to create a Kurdish state in northeastern Syria for Ankara to pose the most serious security threat. No Turkish “security zone” – neither now nor tomorrow, will ever act if the US military continues to build and supply Kurdish “frontier forces” that will be able to penetrate the south-eastern underbelly of Turkey. If the United States does not stop the implementation of this project and does not withdraw from this territory, Turkey will continue its efforts to torpedo it. And if it is required – by force.
The people of Turkey support the armed struggle against the Kurds, who are supported by the United States, and are willing to pay a high price for it. And the leaders of the Kurdish National Self-Defense Detachments are insane if they believe that their demands will be met. They simply overestimate their political positions. The United States will not be able to have Turkey as its ally, and the Kurdish proxy state. Washington will have to decide to make a choice.
And Trump never wanted to promote this project. He always wanted to declare victory over ISIS and leave. But he was constantly opposed and promoted by the Borg project.
But there are geopolitical tasks more important than such interference in the affairs of the Middle East. Trump knows that for the USA the “moment of unipolarity” has already passed – the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, as a result of which the United States remained the only superpower. Russia has returned and China is on the rise. Trump’s policy of adapting to the declining power and power of the United States is to end the “globalization” that has allowed China to rise. Trump wants to geopolitically split the world into two spheres of influence. They will be separated from each other in the political, economic, technological and military fields.
In this “new big game”, northeast Syria is just a minor episode, unworthy of significant participation. Larger Turkey – the US ally in NATO for 70 years – is much more important. If Trump had not made a decision to end the neocon’s project on Syria and not bring the American armed forces out of there, he would have lost. In the place of Erdogan, I would have experienced a powerful temptation to withdraw from NATO and enter into an alliance with Russia, China and Iran. If the United States does not change its course and does not stop fooling around with the Kurds, Turkey will continue its course to “get rid” of the former alliance. Until now, the Turkish army has prevented a break with NATO, but even the most anti-erdogan-minded officers are now on the side of Erdogan.
If the US makes a real proposal to Turkey and takes a new position, then perhaps they will be able to turn Turkey around and drive it into the NATO herd. But is the Trampian White House able to ignore pro-Israel / pro-Kurdish voices and return to this realistic view of things?
If the US cannot do this, then the question “Who lost Turkey?” Will be raised.
Trump decided that not allowing Turkey to withdraw from NATO and prevent it from entering into closer allied relations with Russia, China and Iran is more important than fooling around on the outskirts of the Middle East. And this is the right decision.
By taking the side of the United States, Tashkent risks getting under attack by Iran and the Taliban
The idea of a small Kurdish state, moreover, led to a conflict between the US European Command (U.S. European Command, EUCOM) and the Central Command (U.S. Central Command, CentCom). The fact is that Turkey (and Israel) are under the jurisdiction of EUCOM, while the Middle East and West Asia are under the jurisdiction of CentCom. And for a whole year, EUCOM made more and more noise about CentCom’s plans for Syria. Among the critics of the Syrian plans are General Curtis Scaparotti, the commander of the European command of the US Armed Forces and the Supreme Commander of the Joint Armed Forces of NATO in Europe. During a trip to Washington in March, Scaparotti pressed on Mattis to express his concern about growing tensions in US-Turkish relations. During several meetings, he made similar complaints to his colleague on Centcom, General Joseph Vogel.
The real concern in EUCOM’s and in NATO is that Turkey can really get even closer to Russia and, eventually, withdraw from NATO. Now it is unlikely to happen. (Since 1991, it was CentCom that began to play an excessive role in all US foreign policy. As Minister of Defense, Mattis was a real “CentCom animal.”)
But if the United States hopes that Turkey will end its relations with Russia and Iran, the results may be disappointing. Turkey is dependent on Russian and Iranian natural gas. In addition, Russia and Iran are export markets for it.
After the attempted coup d’état against him, Erdogan did not trust the American side. Moreover, such a position allows him to achieve his own with the greatest flexibility and gives him the levers of exerting influence on the two “blocks” – moreover, that both of them are still courting. He will continue to “swing” between them in order to extract the maximum desired from each of these sides.
The neoconservative elements in the Trump administration and their Zionist supporters lost. Craig Murray describes their goals as follows: “Chaos because of this vague and counterproductive strategy, however strange it may sound, is exactly what the neo-cons want. A constant war in the Middle East is their goal … The neocons believe that by keeping the Arab population in a state of poverty and political disunity, they strengthen the security of Israel. And they, of course, make it easier for Western companies to access the region’s oil and gas resources. This is particularly well seen in destabilized Iraq and Libya. ”
Neoconservative and interventionist “borg” failed in their attempts, using the US temporary opposition to the “Islamic state” within Syria, to drag Trump into a conflict with Iran.
Some current and former US officials complain of the excessively high influence of anti-Iranian hawks on White House policies. This is particularly true of Jim Jeffrey, the US ambassador to Syria, and his supporter, special assistant to the Secretary of State for Levant Joel Raeburn, who publicly insisted that the American armed forces could not be withdrawn from Syria until Iran left.
– People working for Trump — Bolton, Raeburn, and now Jeffrey — only worsen their position when they put forward unrealistic goals in Syria (including requirements for Iran) that imply an indefinitely long stay of the US military, – says one senior American official. An official who, nevertheless, called Trump’s decision disastrous. The same official said that these arguments “are devoid of any connection with the real tasks facing our armed forces” and go far beyond the task of defeating the “Islamic state” and preventing its revival.
In addition, the Iranian presence in Syria is rather small, and the US position is very weak. So, this idea has always been stupid). John Quincy Adams, the Iranian expert and John Allen Gay, an expert on Iran, insists: Trump’s current decision confirms what everyone secretly acknowledged, at least over the past year – the presence of US forces in Syria to fight ISIS has increasingly looked like with which the interventionists in the administration argued that we should strike at Iran.
- At the same time, the preservation of several thousand guys between the Turkish armed forces on the one hand and the Iranians, Russian and Syrian, on the other, has never been a decisive factor in influencing the role of Iran in the region. But there are real risks in the absence of any tangible results. – adds Gay.
- I just don’t think that American society has at least some appetite for a big war with Iran for any reason, and even more so because of Eastern Syria.
The US State Department is already evacuating its staff from Syria. The Pentagon’s servicemen and “contractors”, of which there are from 4,000 to 5,000 people in Syria, gave 60 to 100 days (according to some sources, 30 days, but this seems too short) to collect their belongings and get out.
They will coordinate their actions on the transfer of positions with the Russians. Russian advisers will replace the American “green berets”, who command the Kurdish and Arab tribal armed groups fighting against LIH. Russia will also try to convince Turkey that there is no need for intervention in Eastern Syria. They will pledge to disarm the Kurdish militia or integrate it into the Syrian armed forces. Russian VKS will replace the US Air Force in order to bomb the remaining 2,000 (or so) ISIS militants stationed along the Euphrates River.
Syrian Kurds will have to politely negotiate with Damascus. Now they simply have nowhere to go. Their dream of an autonomous Western Kurdistan will remain a dream. Syria can survive only as a state, control in which is carried out from a single center. She will never become a federation. Local Arab tribes in the north-east of the country may want to take revenge for the arrogance the Kurds treated them when they enjoyed the support of the Americans and when the Kurds mobilized Arab youths to fight against ISIS. Most likely, the Kurdish National Self-Defense Detachments will move to the territory of Northern Iraq to hide there in the mountains along with their brothers from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
Much will depend on how much Russia and Iran can influence the Turkey. After the US’s withdrawal, when the threat of a Kurdish state formation in Syria is reduced for Turkey, they may be able to convince Erdogan to abandon their invasion plans.
The fact that Trump, finally, managed to free himself from the dictates of the “borg”, inspires some hope. Removing American troops from Syria, he fulfills one of his campaign promises.