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What really stands behind the threats to Iran?

dangerous game of Trump

Donald Trump sent his main weapon against Iran – Twitter, threatening President Hassan Rouhani with unprecedented suffering. So he responded to the Iranian’s statements about the perniciousness of the war with Iran for the United States. Should we now expect an American strike on Iran, the risk of which has been talked about for a long time?

US President Donald Trump on Sunday night published an angry message to Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani. “To President of Iran (Hassan) Rouhani: never, never threaten the US again, otherwise you will suffer consequences, such that few people in history have ever suffered. We are no longer the country that will tolerate your insane words about violence and death. Be careful! “- wrote Trump in his Twitter, which has long been the most important weapon in the hands of the American president.

Trump’s message, which he posted in the social network, is printed in capital letters, or, as it is called on the Web, a capsule (that is, with Caps Lock on), which is usually treated as a cry.

The regime of rage Trump in his Twitter included for good reason. On the eve of Rouhani warned the President of the United States from ill-considered actions that could lead to an unprecedented war. “Mr. Trump, do not play with the tail of a lion, you can regret it. America needs to know that peace with Iran is the essence of peace for all, and war with Iran is a war for all wars, “he said at a meeting of Iranian diplomats in Tehran.

The words of Rouhani also arose not from scratch. As is known, Trump demonstrated his anti-Iranian attitude during his election campaign (although in 2013 he cursed Barack Obama for his aggression against Tehran). In early May, Trump announced the withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as the restoration of sanctions not only against Tehran, but also countries that develop trade and economic relations with it. That was negatively perceived even by their closest allies in Europe, for example the FRG, which even now calls on the parties to constructive cooperation and the rejection of threats from the war.

Washington is worried not so much by the nuclear program as by the growing influence of Iran in the region and the successes in the hybrid war against Israel and Saudi Arabia. In addition, Washington has its own selfish interest. First, the US does not want to return the Iranians 150 billion frozen Iranian money, and secondly, I want to play on the change in oil prices.

In early July, the Americans threatened to nullify Tehran’s oil revenues, that is, persuade other countries to stop buying Iranian oil, which is fraught with serious consequences for the whole world. The day before, speaking at the Ronald Reagan Foundation in California, this intention was confirmed by the head of the State Department, Mike Pompeo, accusing the Iranian authorities at the same time of all possible sins, and also announcing American multimedia broadcasting in Farsi in Iran. And it was the desire of the US to encroach on Iran’s oil export that triggered such a sharp reaction from Rouhani. In Tehran previously threatened to block all oil supplies from the region, blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

On Monday, in response to Tramp’s angry shouts, Brigadier General of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Gulamhossein Geibparwar stressed that the threats of the American leader are part of the psychological war, but Tehran will continue to confront its enemies and “will not give up its revolutionary convictions.” “America wants no less than to destroy Iran … But Trump can not do absolutely anything against Iran,” he added.

“Trump can threaten with some sort of armed invasion or intervention, but I do not believe in it. It’s a bad game to start any action where it can lead to unpredictability on a global scale, “said Mikhail Krutikhin, an economic analyst, candidate of historical sciences, an Iranian scholar.

According to the source, the size of Iran and the scatteredness of objects on its territory indicate that it will be difficult for Americans to attack it. Any ground operation against it is excluded, and point strikes on individual objects will not be of use. “Iran is ready to stand up for itself. In addition, Iran can easily block the way out of the Persian Gulf, where from the world market comes 1/3 of the oil. And any armed intervention in this region will not contribute to the restoration of normal navigation, “the expert explained.


So while threats remain threats, stressed Krutikhin. “If the problems in the Persian Gulf with the movement of tankers – then you can see how much it will affect the global oil market,” he added.

By the way, already only against the background of the statements of the American leader, oil prices fell somewhat. The price of September futures for Brent by 08.10 Moscow time decreased by 0.09 dollars (0.12%) – to 72.98 dollars, WTI fell by 0.11 dollars (0.16%) – to 68.15 dollars, Interfax reported.”

Political scientist-Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky also believes that it is hardly worth waiting for US military intervention in Iran. “Undoubtedly, a significant part of American politicians and even those who bet on Trump sleep and see how they would destroy the Iranian statehood. But this would be the last catastrophe for the Middle East, after which no quiet place will remain in this region any more, “the expert concluded.” Tweet Trump is a media increase in rates in a certain diplomatic game. However, as simple as it was with North Korea, Iran will not be able to send its own envoy like Pompeo, for example, “Drobnitsky believes. And indeed, while the typical tramp swings of aggression and friendliness with Iran do not work. So, after the session of the UN General Assembly (at which the Americans attacked Tehran with criticism), Trump made eight requests to meet with Rouhani, the head of the office of the Iranian leader Mahmud Vaazi reported. However, all eight times he was refused. Moreover, the head and spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran is ready to develop relations with all countries except the United States: “If in North Korea all decisions are made by one person and she refers to the Chinese bloc, if we simply agree with Beijing, then in Iran – a real democracy, albeit under the theocratic supervision, where there are many factions fighting each other. And so quickly move from the phase of sharp exacerbation, at least to the visit of the first emissary will not work, “he said. It should also be understood that Trump has problems with his administration, added Drobnitsky. “And if the visit to the KDNR was neutralized, then any visit to Tehran would seriously undermine Trump’s position, primarily among the part of the American political elite that is still supporting him. In general, everything is more complicated on the Iranian front and, having agreed with one or two world leaders, this problem can not be solved, “the interlocutor continued.” I would also pay more attention to the general background of the statements of other Middle East leaders following the talks between Trump and Putin in Helsinki. Apparently, some agreements were reached. And if the arrangements were effective – they can not be comfortable and beautiful for everyone, including Iran. This site is much more complicated than the Korean one, because there are too many interesting people in this region, “explained Drobnitsky. Nevertheless he is sure that this situation can benefit Russia. So, it can play the role of an intermediary in the conflict between the US and Iran, as well as in the conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the expert stressed that, for example, the situation in the Golan Heights carries risks for Moscow, so it must sell its intermediation expensive. However, Krutikhin, on the contrary, believes that at the moment Russia does not have enough political and economic weight to fully benefit from a possible confrontation between Iran and the US, performing mediation functions: “Russia is trying to flirt with everyone: with Iran, with Iran’s enemies, and with the enemies of Iran’s enemies. And those countries with which she flirts, simply use it as a means of blackmailing the same US to show that if you are not with us – we will be with Russia. This is purely psychological blackmail, and Russia’s real strength is not prepared in this region, “concluded Krutikhin.

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