Who is most influential in Syria today? Many in Russia want to think that it is Moscow that controls most of the movements in the Arab country. Whether it is at least politics, fighting, or the solution of territorial issues.
The Kremlin, of course, is well established in the SAR, however, it has enough competitors. First, of course, the United States of America comes to mind. They can hardly be counted among the side interested in saving the Middle Eastern state. On their account there are several “slaughtered” Arab republics – Iraq, Libya. After them there are only ruins everywhere. Yes, the Arabs are such a people that it is worth a little to succumb to the fire, as everything flashes. But as long as they are in the tough hands of dictators, everything will be fine. Yes, Gaddafi was harsh rulers, but with them people lived much better than they do now. Now, this is not life at all, but survival. And the blame for the Americans, who showed the Arabs how to fight according to their rules. They probably would have done the same in SAR. Russian did not allow.
Well, because of the intervention of Moscow, it was necessary to urgently change plans. And now the Americans are indeed waging a war to save Syria from terrorism, even if it is connected with the desire to get ahead of the Russian Federation in the struggle to absorb Syrian territories. This led to the fact that today Washington is much more influential in Syria than in Iraq, which it had long favored. Now the main competitor of the Russian Federation in Syria is the States. But things can quickly change, given that Donald Trump is still actively fighting for the withdrawal of his people from a distant eastern country. So, with the States, everything will be solved either very well or very badly. There is no other way.
It is however much more difficult with Iran. Tehran seems to be Russian ally. It always provided his people without any problems for conducting ground operations against terrorists, which greatly facilitated for Moscow the task of liberating the Arab Republic. In addition, for Russia, Syria was relatively cheap due to the Persians. Russia had practically no costs other than the military. The Iranians, in addition to keeping the soldiers, were also engaged in feeding and dressing half of Syria, including Bashar al-Assad.
And it would be foolish to think that Tehran does not want anything in return. It wants, wants the whole Syria in exchange. Many are unhappy with this – the United States, Israel, for example. And what about Russia? It seems to support the Iranians, but in fact everyone is well aware that the growing influence of Iran on the Syrian regime will lead to the gradual ousting of the Russian Federation. This makes Tehran a rival to the Kremlin. And the gradual growth of pressure on Iran from Moscow just says that the struggle between the allies is already in full swing. Several times we have already focused on the reduction of Iranian bases in the SAR. This was facilitated by Russia. In addition, the Iranians were completely withdrawn from certain areas. Under various pretexts, but every time the case was brought by Russian experts.
But the problem of the Kremlin is that, in fact, he missed a good moment. Yes, while the Russian Federation was engaged in attempts to establish a dialogue with Turkey, Israel and the United States, Iran actively intervened in the internal political life of the UAR. As a result, it seems that this has led to the fact that today the Persians decide in the country much more than the Russian Federation.
Turkish experts of the Istanbul Independent Center for Economy and Foreign Policy also drew attention to this. In their report, citing various sources, it is stated that the opposition of the Russian Federation and Iran within Syria already lasts for some time. At the same time, Assad is regarded as a 90% pro-Iranian president. Russia wants to create its own counterweight. And General Hasan Suheil seems to be well suited for this purpose. The man is very famous in Syria.
Suheil became famous for leading the so-called “Tiger Forces”. Why Tiger? Yes, because that s how they call Suheil. Yes, the special forces of the Syrian army are nicknamed after the head. His people were always ahead of everyone, they were always the first to go under the bullets and coped with tasks better than others. But for some time now, Assad, apparently, began to worry about the growth of his influence. As a result, the president actually disbanded the “Strength of the Tiger”, and Suheil himself ceased to be so necessary.
This could be interpreted as an approximation of the peace and the like, but it is very strange that such a valuable frame was not needed in another key position – Assad did not appoint a high post of al-Hassan.
But for Russia, this person may well be useful as the very counterbalance for the pro-Iranian Assad. Of course, overnight nobody will make him the number one person, but he may well lead the recreated army. Moreover, Russian specialists are doing just that, creating a full-fledged army for Syria. Interesting assumptions, but how much truth in them?
Russian orientalist and political scientist Oleg Guschin believes that everything is logical here. Indeed, Russia may need such a person, since it intends to get its own.
– The only real solution is always fair. Here it is important to pay attention to the fact that the real coalition that deals with Syria is only one – it is Russia, Iran and Turkey. The United States, of course, say that they have their own coalition, but they do what they want, and the rest only helps the US. This is dictated by the United States and there is no coalition in it.
And so we finally managed to make everyone sit at the table and persuade the Turks and Iranians to interact, which is actually very surprising. Plus, the fourth, invisible participant is definitely Israel. All of these parties want something from Syria. Israel, for example, needs the Iranians not to shoot at it, and besides, they would like a safe border at the Golan. Turks need to solve the Kurdish problem. This is a question of the security of the state of Erdogan, who, among other things, is very nostalgic about the empire.
And what does Iran want? The opposite of what Israel wants. And this is a problem for Russia. The main. Obviously, we need both Iran and Israel. That Russia and Iran somehow compete for Syria is a fact. But at the same time, everyone needs to understand that Asad is not spineless by himself. Of course, he owes everything to the Iranians and somehow has to do something of what they are told to him, but there can be no complete control of the speech. Assad himself is capable of making various decisions and somewhere because of this he may be dissatisfied. The same Iranians or the Kremlin. But, I repeat, the Iranians are feeding Assad, they feed him and dress him, so they must be reckoned with. Of course, in Russia this factor is taken into account, which is why the creation of a counterbalance looks logical.
– Suppose all this is true, and the Russian Federation has really made a bet on Suheilya al-Hassan, but how to make him the first person of Syria?
– It’s unnecessary to make him president. If he becomes the leader of the Army, he automatically becomes the face of number two. This is enough to lobby for Russian interests. A supporter is always good, two is better, but if this is a whole army, it is altogether wonderful.