Ukraine at the end of the year may withdraw from the Minsk process. What’s next: war or recognition?
Before the New Year Kiev does not adopt a law on the special status of Donbass with the inclusion of the “Steinmeier formula” in it. This was announced during a press marathon by President Vladimir Zelensky.
– If we do not adopt the new law on special status and do not implement the Steinmeier formula, then we will have to leave the Minsk process. This will happen automatically, – the Ukrainian leader emphasized.
– This is my impression of what might happen, and this is another reason on the other hand to say that Ukraine itself does not want to carry out what it has signed, and then we can remain alone with Russia, – he added.
In addition, the Ukrainian president, during a press marathon, noted that the Minsk agreements were not binding on him. According to him, the previous authorities of Ukraine promised to fulfill what they themselves were not going to do, and now they accuse the new president of betraying national interests. He also added that if, within the framework of the agreements reached, it was not possible to achieve progress in resolving the conflict, it would be necessary to conclude new ones.
The Ukrainian president also spoke about the existence of a secret “plan B” in Kiev to resolve the situation in the Donbass, which could be an alternative to the Minsk agreements. At the same time, he refused to disclose the details of the alternative strategy, only noting that he was not satisfied with the current format of the agreements.
Why are state-owned media more concerned with the problems of “independent” than with cannibalistic reforms in the homeland.
Zelensky also emphasized that he was opposed to granting autonomy to the DNR and LNR:
– I do not believe that 34 percent of our country said that they were in favor of secession of these territories (apparently, we are talking about these Donetsk and Lugansk). I don’t know, I can’t say. I am not ready to give the status of autonomy for this territory.
At the same time, he assured that he was ready to discuss certain humanitarian issues. However, while the text of the document (the law on special status) is missing, it is premature to talk about what compromises Kiev is prepared for.
Answering the question, what forces after the withdrawal of troops will control the line of contact, the Ukrainian president noted that this should be done by the police and the OSCE mission, who “should be at the border and help our border guards.” He also expressed the wish that a peacekeeping contingent should appear on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
In general, we got already used to Zebansky somersaults, who often say completely opposite things. As well as the fact that the Ukrainian side is not going to implement the Minsk agreements in the form in which they are written, as well as to implement the “Steinmeier formula”. But statements about withdrawal from the Minsk process are something new, even Poroshenko didn’t allow himself to do that. What is it? An attempt to calm the nationalist “street”, which has been rebelling for several days against the president, threatening him with a new “Maidan” for betraying the interests of Ukraine? Or can the Ukrainian authorities really decide this?
– If we consider this statement in the context of everything Zelensky said during his next show, this is more likely a hidden warning for opponents of the Minsk settlement, – believes Kiev publicist Dmitry Skvortsov.
– He told them that: “If we abandon the Steinmeier formula, we will be left alone with Russia.”
What does it mean “if the Steinmeier formula is not accepted”? It seems to be signed …
– Well, it also needs to be implemented. And there are already problems with this – in terms of troop withdrawal. In the most technically easy part of the formula, by the way. So what can we say about constitutional changes — giving DNR the status of a subject of confederation. If I’m not mistaken, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has already declared the inadmissibility of the participants in the Donbass militia …
– Zelensky, by the way, said that he was not ready to give autonomy status to Donbass. But what about the law on special status? What will be spelled out in it? And what about the amendments to the Constitution that are envisaged by Minsk?
– That’s what it is about: Zelensky frightens the fascists from Right Sector with the “Russian aggressor”, but he himself, having 73% of the “quilted jackets” (as they call pro-Russians), «adequilted people» («non-adequate quilted jackets») (thet s political slang of today Ukraine) and just peaceful inhabitants, himself trembles from the cries of an absolute minority.
– According to Zelensky, the society has a request to end the war. Are there any?
– Do not forget that the “peace party” took the second place in the parliamentary elections. Together with a part of the “Servants of the People” and, due to their own stupidity, who didn’t pass the Nashi parliament, this is a significant part of the politics. Another thing is that according to the ancient Ukrainian tradition, every Ukrainian president, including Kuchma and Yanukovych, is obliged to ritually bow to Ukrainian chauvinists. That’s why their voice sounds louder.
– If you hypothetically imagine that Ukraine is withdrawing from the Minsk agreements, what will the West say about this? What about Russia? Recognizes the republic?
– The West, of course, will not publicly condemn Ukraine. In extreme cases, blame will be blamed on Ukraine and Russia equally (although the Russian Federation is not even a party to the agreements). But in fact, the West will withdraw from the support of Ukraine. And the last one will really remain face to face with Russia. One way or another, this will turn into internal shocks for Ukraine, deprived of Western financial and political assistance. And shocks will be reflected in even greater independence of the regions, not to mention DNR. In certain geopolitical situations, recognition of the New Russian Republics by Moscow is also possible. How did this happen to Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the Georgian disaster of 2008?
– This statement suggests that Zelensky does not understand what to do next, – said political analyst Ivan Mezyukho.
– He does not have a plan to establish peace in the Donbass, he does not know how to react to protests by radicals. Perhaps he is simply trying in this way to “reassure” the active nationalist public, excited by the so-called “No surrender!”
– At the same time, he says that he does not see an alternative to the “Steinmeier formula”. What kind of somersaults? Zelensky has too often said mutually exclusive things lately. This even Poroshenko did not allow himself …
– I am absolutely not surprised by the mutually exclusive statements of the Ukrainian president. Not only is he not in the subject of everything that happens in his own country, he behaves like an extremely excited person. Protests rallied Zelensky’s behavior. It seems that he is really scared and does not control the situation in the country.
– How to understand the phrase “it will happen automatically”? It seems that the Minsk agreements have been extended without statute of limitations? No?
– During informal communication with reporters, the Ukrainian leader spoke so many absurdities that it is extremely difficult to understand the true meaning of his words. As well as Poroshenko, he somehow interprets the Minsk agreements in his own way and makes statements, after which there is a feeling that the assistants to the head of the Ukrainian state either do not prepare the aspiring president for public speaking or their “student” is simply not studying well.
– What does it mean “we can be left face to face with Russia”? That is, the West will stop supporting Ukraine if it withdraws from the agreements?
– This is such a scarecrow. Like, only within the framework of the Minsk agreements does the West support Ukraine. It turns out that Zelensky defends the Minsk process he criticizes. In one interview, he can confuse both the interlocutors and himself. Do not be surprised at this.
– If Kiev does so, how do we behave? Recognize the DNR?
- If Kiev withdraws from the Minsk agreements, then the further development of the situation can be absolutely unpredictable. Moreover, in the event of withdrawal from the Minsk process, Ukraine may lose more than gain. I would not rule out the hypothetical recognition by Russia of the Donetsk Republic in the event of the breakdown of the Minsk agreements. In any case, with such a development of events, Moscow will not abandon the fate of the Republic of Donbass. It is obvious.